Managerial Report
65055_18_ch18_p765-811.qxd 10/11/06 12:29 PM Page 808
808
Chapter 18
TABLE 18.14
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Forecasting
DEPARTMENT STORE SALES FOR THE COUNTY, SEPTEMBER 2002
THROUGH DECEMBER 2006 ($ MILLIONS)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
55.8
56.4
71.4
117.6
46.8
48.0
60.0
57.6
61.8
58.2
56.4
63.0
57.6
53.4
71.4
114.0
46.8
48.6
59.4
58.2
60.6
55.2
51.0
58.8
49.8
54.6
65.4
102.0
43.8
45.6
57.6
53.4
56.4
52.8
54.0
60.6
47.4
54.6
67.8
100.2
48.0
51.6
57.6
58.2
60.0
57.0
57.6
61.8
69.0
75.0
85.2
121.8
through December 2006. They also asked you to determine whether a case can be made for excess storm-related sales during the same period. If such a case can be made, Carlson is entitled to compensation for excess sales it would have earned in addition to ordinary sales.
Managerial Report
Prepare a report for the managers of the Carlson Department Store that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following:
1. An estimate of sales had there been no hurricane.
2. An estimate of countywide department store sales had there been no hurricane.
3. An estimate of lost sales for the Carlson Department Store for September through
December 2006.
In addition, use the countywide actual department stores sales for September through
December 2006 and the estimate in part (2) to make a case for or against excess stormrelated sales.
Appendix 18.1
Forecasting with Minitab
In this appendix we show how Minitab can be used to develop forecasts using three forecasting methods: moving averages, exponential smoothing, and trend projection.
Moving Averages
CD file
Gasoline
To show how Minitab can be used to develop forecasts using the moving averages method, we will develop a forecast for the gasoline sales time series in Table 18.1 and Figure 18.5.
The sales data for
808
Chapter 18
TABLE 18.14
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Forecasting
DEPARTMENT STORE SALES FOR THE COUNTY, SEPTEMBER 2002
THROUGH DECEMBER 2006 ($ MILLIONS)
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
55.8
56.4
71.4
117.6
46.8
48.0
60.0
57.6
61.8
58.2
56.4
63.0
57.6
53.4
71.4
114.0
46.8
48.6
59.4
58.2
60.6
55.2
51.0
58.8
49.8
54.6
65.4
102.0
43.8
45.6
57.6
53.4
56.4
52.8
54.0
60.6
47.4
54.6
67.8
100.2
48.0
51.6
57.6
58.2
60.0
57.0
57.6
61.8
69.0
75.0
85.2
121.8
through December 2006. They also asked you to determine whether a case can be made for excess storm-related sales during the same period. If such a case can be made, Carlson is entitled to compensation for excess sales it would have earned in addition to ordinary sales.
Managerial Report
Prepare a report for the managers of the Carlson Department Store that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following:
1. An estimate of sales had there been no hurricane.
2. An estimate of countywide department store sales had there been no hurricane.
3. An estimate of lost sales for the Carlson Department Store for September through
December 2006.
In addition, use the countywide actual department stores sales for September through
December 2006 and the estimate in part (2) to make a case for or against excess stormrelated sales.
Appendix 18.1
Forecasting with Minitab
In this appendix we show how Minitab can be used to develop forecasts using three forecasting methods: moving averages, exponential smoothing, and trend projection.
Moving Averages
CD file
Gasoline
To show how Minitab can be used to develop forecasts using the moving averages method, we will develop a forecast for the gasoline sales time series in Table 18.1 and Figure 18.5.
The sales data for