Market Potential Analysis
1
MARKET POTENTIAL ANALYSIS:
A METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING THE MARKET POTENTIAL
FOR COMPUTERS AND OTHER INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES
Kenneth L. Kraemer and Jason Dedrick
Center for Research on Information Technology and Organizations
University of California, Irvine
Irvine, CA 92697
May 1998
Working Paper: #ITR-149
This research was supported by grants from the U.S. National Science Foundation and IBM Global Services.
2
ABSTRACT
This paper describes a methodology for estimating the market potential for computers and other information technologies. Market potential analysis is not market forecasting, although forecasting when the potential of a market might be realized can be part of the analysis. At base, market potential analysis sizes markets based upon a sequential and increasingly refined process from global or regional to national markets and business, consumer and other segments within national markets.
Market potential analysis is a strategic tool to identify market opportunities and invest resources where they will have the greatest return in the long run. Market potential analysis can help to target markets with high growth potential in the future. Market potential analysis enables companies to:
•
Categorize countries as lead markets, break-out markets or emerging markets. •
Quantify market potential for a given product by country, region or globally, now and in the future.
•
Identify growth drivers and barriers in those markets.
•
Understand how to exploit growth markets by tailoring marketing, product development and production strategies to meet customer demands and overcome market barriers.
3
MARKET POTENTIAL ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION
India is reported to have a growing middle class of 200 million people, while China’s middle class is estimated to be as high as 300 million people.
Faced with anemic economic growth in much of the industrial world, many companies are looking to the
MARKET POTENTIAL ANALYSIS:
A METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING THE MARKET POTENTIAL
FOR COMPUTERS AND OTHER INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES
Kenneth L. Kraemer and Jason Dedrick
Center for Research on Information Technology and Organizations
University of California, Irvine
Irvine, CA 92697
May 1998
Working Paper: #ITR-149
This research was supported by grants from the U.S. National Science Foundation and IBM Global Services.
2
ABSTRACT
This paper describes a methodology for estimating the market potential for computers and other information technologies. Market potential analysis is not market forecasting, although forecasting when the potential of a market might be realized can be part of the analysis. At base, market potential analysis sizes markets based upon a sequential and increasingly refined process from global or regional to national markets and business, consumer and other segments within national markets.
Market potential analysis is a strategic tool to identify market opportunities and invest resources where they will have the greatest return in the long run. Market potential analysis can help to target markets with high growth potential in the future. Market potential analysis enables companies to:
•
Categorize countries as lead markets, break-out markets or emerging markets. •
Quantify market potential for a given product by country, region or globally, now and in the future.
•
Identify growth drivers and barriers in those markets.
•
Understand how to exploit growth markets by tailoring marketing, product development and production strategies to meet customer demands and overcome market barriers.
3
MARKET POTENTIAL ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION
India is reported to have a growing middle class of 200 million people, while China’s middle class is estimated to be as high as 300 million people.
Faced with anemic economic growth in much of the industrial world, many companies are looking to the