The economic forecasting staff for Merrill Finch developed probability estimates for the state of the economy, and the security analysts have developed software to estimate the rate of return on each of these alternatives under each state of the economy. A chart showing the results of the analysis is in Appendix A of this report.
Section 1 of this report begins with a discussion on the concept of Return. The calculations of each of the alternatives expected rate of return are also calculated and discussed. Section 1 then continues with the concept of Risk. Three different measurements of risk are discussed and calculated for each of the investment alternatives. The risk measurements discussed are the Standard Deviation, Coefficient of Variance, and Beta Coefficient.
Section 2 discusses some scenarios of different investment options. The first is of a 2-stock portfolio consisting of the investment of $50,000 into both High Tech and Collections. The expected return, standard deviation, and coefficient of variance are then calculated and discussed for this option. The second scenario is of a portfolio consisting of randomly selected stocks. The section concludes with a discussion of the risk involved with this random portfolio and how the addition of more random stocks to the portfolio would affect the risk.
Section 3 discusses the Security Market Line (SML) Equation and how the SML would be affected if inflation expectations were to rise by 3 percentage points. Appendix B shows this equation and its use to calculate the required returns of each of the investment alternatives. The section is then concluded with
Bibliography: righam, Eugene F., and Joel F. Houston. Fundamentals of Financial Management. "D 'Leon Inc., Chapter 8 spreadsheet module". Made available on July 17, 2008 by Dr. Richard Constand. Brigham, Eugene F., and Joel F. Houston. Fundamentals of Financial Management. Thomson: South-Western Publishers, Eleventh Ed. 2007.