Non State Actors

Non-state actors (NSAs) will contribute to the complex operational environment over the next 10 years as trends emerge which allows them the ability to operate in weak or failed states. The perception of a weak US national defense will trigger shifts of strategic relationships and allow non-state actors the opportunity to challenge the international status quo and use weak or failed states as breeding grounds for their ideology. This complex environment will impact on our strategic direction as DOD designs and implements Joint Force 2025.

Failed states and the interconnectedness of globalization will create and an environment for NSAs to operate freely. Syria and Iraq continue to be places of opportunity for our adversaries to thrive to due extremely weak governance. Warring will be less and less confined to the battlefield and more aimed at disrupting societies using cyber weapons from afar and suicide terrorists from within. Their strategy will challenge US forces from design to execution. (National Intelligence Council, p7) To add to the complexity non state actors can add to the instability of failed states by triggering mass migrations, creating safe havens and inciting violence against our allies. One of the most dangerous scenarios is the one where NSAs acquire and use chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear
Migration and displacement will affect the FSE as "culturally unassimilated urban enclaves and physically isolated refugee camps" will give rise to "terror, violence, or other coercive instruments" (FOE, p11) and many of the individuals may be inclined to look to the NSAs organizations for a sense of purpose or support. Already we see them influencing world events and the rippling affects that they are able to have across areas like popular migration, displaced persons, both internal and refugee, as well as food and water