Donald R. Philbin, Jr.*
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I. Rigorous Legal Analysis Forms the Basis for Negotiation Preparation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . II. Decision Tree Analyses Help Develop and Test Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A. Decision Trees Are Used to Analyze Complex Business Decisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B. Legal Claims Share Similarities with Complex Business Decisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1. Car Buyer Becomes Plaintiff with a “Lemon” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2. Indignant Dealer Reviews Its Options Too . . . . III. Adjust for Psychological Biases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A. Risk Tolerance and Loss Aversion Change Our Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B. Optimistic Overconfidence: The Lake Wobegon Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C. Perfect Information – Why We Settle “On the Courthouse Steps” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D. Attribution Errors and Anger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250 252 257 260 263 264 270 276 277 281 283 287
* Don Philbin is an AV-rated attorney, mediator, arbitrator, and consultant based in San Antonio, Texas. His experience as a commercial litigator (associate and partner in Bar Register firms), general counsel, and president of hundred-million dollar plus communications and technology related companies augment his business and legal education: B.A. (business), Trinity University; M.B.A., The University of Texas at San Antonio