PCB World Production and Market
NTI Digest, March, 2010
Dr. Hayao Nakahara
N.T. Information Ltd
Introduction
2009 was one of the worst recessionary years since the end of World War II. Subprime problem in the US, which looked innocent to most other countries, spread quickly throughout the world like a contagious disease, particularly after the fall of Lehman Brothers in September of 2008. China was the only major country that was spared from this terrible recession, but because of its excessive stimulus programs, there are fears of inflation and rising wages. Its outcome is yet to be seen.
Certain areas of electronics industry, such as Flat Panel TV (FPTV), Cell Phones (CP) and Personal Computers (PC), did not do too badly in 2009 despite the recession, at least in terms of the number of shipment although considerably down when measured in revenue.
We shall analyze the outcome of our electronics industry during the recessionary year of 2009 and attempt to forecast for the near future.
GDP
As mentioned already, the only major country which was spared from the recession in 2009 was China. Without positive growth of China’s economy, the world economy would have been a total disaster.
Minus 2.1% reduction of world GDP in 2009 may sound very small, but its effect on the production of electronic equipment is not so small. The world electronic production fell $160 billion in 2009. Since about 3.2% of electronic products is considered to be PCB contents on the average, this translates into about $5.1 billion decrease of PCB production in 2009.
Electronic Equipment Shipment
PCB Shipment
The following table is this author’s assessment of PCB shipment in 2009 and forecast in the near future:
The decrease of PCB shipment from 2008 to 2009 was about $5.7 billion, which is in fair agreement of the previous estimate of $5.1 billion (see Page 1). The average selling price of mass-produced PCB is said to have been between 5 and 10% for regular
Dr. Hayao Nakahara
N.T. Information Ltd
Introduction
2009 was one of the worst recessionary years since the end of World War II. Subprime problem in the US, which looked innocent to most other countries, spread quickly throughout the world like a contagious disease, particularly after the fall of Lehman Brothers in September of 2008. China was the only major country that was spared from this terrible recession, but because of its excessive stimulus programs, there are fears of inflation and rising wages. Its outcome is yet to be seen.
Certain areas of electronics industry, such as Flat Panel TV (FPTV), Cell Phones (CP) and Personal Computers (PC), did not do too badly in 2009 despite the recession, at least in terms of the number of shipment although considerably down when measured in revenue.
We shall analyze the outcome of our electronics industry during the recessionary year of 2009 and attempt to forecast for the near future.
GDP
As mentioned already, the only major country which was spared from the recession in 2009 was China. Without positive growth of China’s economy, the world economy would have been a total disaster.
Minus 2.1% reduction of world GDP in 2009 may sound very small, but its effect on the production of electronic equipment is not so small. The world electronic production fell $160 billion in 2009. Since about 3.2% of electronic products is considered to be PCB contents on the average, this translates into about $5.1 billion decrease of PCB production in 2009.
Electronic Equipment Shipment
PCB Shipment
The following table is this author’s assessment of PCB shipment in 2009 and forecast in the near future:
The decrease of PCB shipment from 2008 to 2009 was about $5.7 billion, which is in fair agreement of the previous estimate of $5.1 billion (see Page 1). The average selling price of mass-produced PCB is said to have been between 5 and 10% for regular