High expectations and overconfidence can almost always lead to disappoint. Hindsight biases shed light on the show the clues and signs that made a certain outcome occur before it happened afterward. The hindsight bias is that “I knew it all along” phenomenon that is only ever stated after all the facts have been presented. The basic example of the hindsight bias is when after seeing the outcome of a possible unforeseeable event a person then believes he or she "knew it all along". Historical events upon deep review all show many signs of the ticking bomb that slowly led to what seemed like a spontaneous explosion that underneath have a complex expansive list of motives that provoked it. For instance, Great Depression in review wasn’t one bad stock market crash that spiralled into a huge economic shut down but the result of many factors. Over Speculation of stock and land, overproduction of goods and unregulated banking were just some of many factors at play that now in hindsight seem like obvious red flags but at the time they went unnoticed by most. World War One may seem to have been immediately caused by the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand but the long term background of imperialism, militarism, nationalism and intense alliances were really the factors that led up to war, historians and students alike can review information from that time and scholarly work and create a hindsight biased of each factor and what it actually led to yet at the time leading up to actual war it was much harder to tell because the future as so unclear.…
* Fallacy of Change: You expect that other people will change to suit you if you just pressure or cajole them enough. You need to change people because your hope for happiness seem to…
Project Management Plan Employee Incentive Program CPMGT/301 October 13, 2014 Project Management Plan Attracting skilled employees is often important and often difficult. Employers face major challenges when they consider the increasing difficulty of finding skilled people every company should have an employee incentive program if it is sales and especially for university enrollment advisors because they are the ones that bring business into the university. The project scope of Title IV of the Higher Education Act of 1965 strict accreditation regulations and laws prevent the university from offering bonuses to employees who enroll students. The work breakdown structure for the employee incentive program consists of activities/attributes, milestones stakeholders, stakeholders needs, tools and techniques. Activities/attributes Create a list of creative ideas Have employees take a survey once a year Boost employee morale and set a goal for employees Provide a positive working environment Retain employees Diversity of activities Develop skills and potential Employees need to be more involved and engaged Communication to employees Milestones Approval of incentive program Incentives must follow rules/regulations Responsibilities Personal growth Stakeholders University, Student, Employees Rewards are financial and non-financial Submit ideas to stakeholders because then they will know what works best Recognize and reward employees Days off Company outings Paid vacations Stakeholders needs University needs money Employees need incentives rewards, appreciation Students need education Tools Techniques Direct approach networking Employees plus number of students who enroll Merit Increase Salary increase is based on the number of students the employee enrolls Use of an organizational chart to understand roles responsibilities Tell your employees how well they are doing Employee parking for the month The employer and the employee have to have a balanced…
There are four factors that cause people to have unrealistic optimism: Their desired end state, their cognitive mechanisms, the information they have about themselves versus others and overall mood. Studies show that most humans are disposed to unrealistic optimism. Illusory optimism increases our vulnerability. This cognitive bias prevents people from taking precautionary measures in life, especially regarding health conditions.…
This section provides general guidelines for determining planning materiality and tolerable misstatement for audits performed by Willis & Adams. The application of these guidelines requires professional judgment and the facts and circumstances of each individual engagement must be considered.…
Cognitive bias is “a pattern of deviation in judgment that occurs in particular situations, which may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, or what is broadly called irrationality” (Wikipedia). In the case of Mt. Everest, irrationality was present throughout the members, including the leaders. For instance, Hansen’s statement “I’ve put too much of myself into this mountain to quit now, without giving it everything I’ve got” (Roberto and Carioggia, p.9) and Weather’s insistent in continuing to climb the mountain in spite of his one eye being completely blurred are both evidence of perceptual distortion. Another example is the knowledge of both Fischer and Hall regarding the strict “Two O’clock Rule” but both failed to implement it, showing inaccurate judgment. Finally, illogical interpretation of recent good weather on the mountain as something that will continue was irrational. These cognitive biases…
The two cognitive biases that I will be discussing in this paper are the confirmation bias and the availability heuristic. The first bias I will be discussing is the confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is described as the tendency for a person to search for and interpret information in such a way that it will confirm their previously existing beliefs. As you can see, this could definitely cause issues when it comes to impartial and sound reasoning in a person’s judgement. An example of this bias would be me writing this paper, but only looking for facts and giving personal opinions that support my argument, while also leaving out any type of information that opposes my viewpoint or argument. A way for me to avoid falling ill to this bias, would be for me to mention these conflicting arguments in this paper and point out why I think they are unsound. Being aware and open to both sides of an issue, instead of just the side you agree with, is the number one way to prevent yourself from falling ill to this…
Some efficient strategies have been developed to overcome the limitations of the brain, when dealing with making decisions about complex issues. However, we have also developed a number of ways of thinking that can lead to bias in our decision making. From the list below select some of the factors that can influence our selection of cues for judgment.…
The types of “Cognitive Bias” are a really new stuff for me, at first view I really didn’t understand the meaning of they, but after a deep reflection I got identify those types that affected me. The first one is Confirmation Bias, that is when the people think that the only correct answer is that can satisfies their beliefs. This kind of bias affected me because, I always feel skeptical about those things that alter o differ with the ideas or thoughts I embraced earlier. Since I was a child, I fight with my teachers because when they tried to taught me something in a differ way, that I’ve learned before with my parents, I never wanted to accept it. Maybe this could sound stupid, but this problem had a negative effect in me,…
A prejudice is a preconceived perception, usually negative, towards an individual or group. Prejudiced views and actions are everywhere in society and around us. There are numerous types of prejudiced views (such as prejudices against certain ethnicities), along with numerous origins for them, like upbringing - for example, if we grew up in an area where there were many crimes committed by people of a certain ethnicity, we may develop prejudiced views against them. As we get older, we learn more about these groups we prejudice against and these preconceptions can change or disappear. Yet, sometimes, prejudiced views may instead be perpetuated,…
When making a decision one prefers to be rational and a free thinking individual where necessary factors are considered before making a decision, than rushing through them immediately and making poor decisions. These decisions we make in our day-today life are often influenced by biases that one is completely unaware of. Biases are the annoying glitches in our thinking that makes us arrive at questionable decisions and make erroneous conclusions. Cognitive biases also known as Decision biases are “Ways of thinking or a thought process that produces errors in judgment or decision making, or at least departures from the use of normative rules or standards” (Gilovich and Griffin 2002). It is a systematic pattern that deviates from the normal,…
Those who fail to plan, plan to fail, or at least plan not to improve, according to the management literature. Look at school improvement, and there’s similar agreement pretty much across the literature that the schools that improve are the ones that plan. They establish a clear educational vision and consequent shared mission; identify goals or objectives that enable them to achieve that mission and thereby realise that vision; audit themselves, thereby identifying areas for improvement; and develop and implement educational programs on the basis of leadership 57 that audit that address areas for improvement in ways that help them achieve the mission. That process, much of the literature suggests, is recursive or cyclical. The key in the school improvement literature seems to be that there’s a first step, identifying your vision and shared mission, that then informs the next step, the planning process of identifying goals or objectives aligned with the vision and mission.…
I will offer 2 examples of cognitive biases as well as suspect group decision-making processes that initially would have led to catastrophic results if counter action had failed to correct the situation.…
The past December holiday was a disaster. A week before the holiday would start, we desided (my family and I) to spend the holidays at the Cape of Good Hope.…
Failing to plan is planning to fail, or in short; procrastinating leads to disaster. Procrastination, a word that is known by many and practiced by more, but what exactly causes one to procrastinate? The main cause of this is the lack of preparation in anything that we do. Simple tasks such as our chores and daily routines to more complex things such as our goals in life we don’t take the time to plan how and when we are going to do them. Once we choose the path of procrastination, we normally would come up with the excuse of “I’ll cross that bridge when I reach it” or “I will do it later” to prolong what will normally be the inevitable, failure. We look at planning as something tedious and mind-numbing when the real reason for our lack of preparation is because we are lazy. We expect things to just happen, as if we are entitled to it. The reality of it is that if we don’t plan to succeed in life, or to do our chores, or simply do our homework, do not expect anything except failure. To ensure success instead of failure you must make a plan. To do so, make an effective plan before time, execute that plan, and reflect on any mistakes you made to ensure better results next time.…