Pm 584 Quantitative Risk Assessment
Running head: QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT
Quantitative Risk Assessment
Jeffrey Smith
University of Phoenix
PM/584 Project Risk Management
Leon Baudot
October 6, 2014
Quantitative Risk Assessment
For the project of redesigning packing for the Canadian market, quantitative risk assessment plays an important role. Quantitative risk assessment is, “A process for assigning a numeric value to the probability of loss based on known risks and available, objective data… used to determine potential direct and indirect costs to the company based on values assigned to company assets and their exposure to risk” (InvestorWords.com, 2014). For this particular project, quantitative risk assessment will be useful in determining not only which …show more content…
are areas of potential risk, but also to what degree these risks may affect the overall integrity of the project.
Revised Project Background
The project of the redesign of packaging for the Canadian market currently consists of four different product lines including Dial, Tone, Right Guard, and Dry Idea, and consists of over 50 variants spanning the four lines. Each new packaging design is independent of every other thus there exists no interdependency from design to the next. Each design observes a similar path consisting of initial review of changes, alterations, and additions by management, marketing, and the design team, initial layout of established changes by the design team followed by a first round review of changes by marketing, legal, management and compliance. If additional changes are required, a second round of design and review is implemented up to two additional rounds as needed. Upon successful acknowledgement of new designs, the artwork is then sent to our preproduction team for development to printer-ready artwork. Once completed, the artwork is sent to a third party production house for mockups to be created to be sent to the parent company in Germany for final approval. If any designs are rejected (and they never are), commentary from Germany is implemented into further redesign and the process is restarted. Upon approval from Germany, artwork is submitted to the printer. Printer will then submit print-ready, color-calibrated proofs for final approval. Proofs are reviewed by management for final approval before actual printing. Once printed, packaging is sent to a fulfillment house to have labels applied to containers and filled with product or have wraps applied to soap bars. Upon completion of fulfillment, finished product is shipped to various holding facilities in Canada for final disposition. As previously stated, project will span eight months from inception to final delivery.
Risk Identification Framework
Management Delays: As the majority of the work for this project involves objective changes and adjustments to existing packaging, the first phase, initial review by management, involves nominal risk. Management will evaluate and select which products will receive updated treatment for inclusion into the Canadian market. Once the products are selected, management has no further involvement outside of potential cancellations of various packaging designs or their requested involvement during a particular phase of completion.
Design Delays: As this project includes approximately 50 variants of packaging including labels and wraps, production must be coordinated to allow for enough time for completion of initial layouts and any necessary revisions, while taking into consideration the design needs and time constrains on the design team from other departments and for other projects running concurrently. While the project has a timeline of eight months, final design layouts must be approved and ready for preproduction within the first four months of the project. The in-house design team will complete the bulk of the design phase of the project, though external design agencies may be utilized if time constraints are threatened. It should be noted that the use of external design agencies would incur additional costs. Also, the design process will require an initial review before being released to the review team for official review, to ensure all parameters have been incorporated.
Review Delays: This area constitutes the bulk of all potential delays. While each packaging component is independent of one another, the review process for each component must be completed sequentially among the review team. There are five departments that will review each design layout and either approve or denote changes. Some of these potential changes are subject to additional changes or cancellations by other departments, meaning the first team may indicate several changes that the third team can then override if the indicated changes are deemed unnecessary. Also, the number of rounds of review may add potential delays to the overall project.
Another potential area of delay exists with the timely completion of review by the required departments. Certain key staff may be unavailable to review a packaging design during a given time period. To circumvent potential risks, each member of the review staff will have two alternative staff members capable of reviewing each package design. Should no staff members be available to review, the particular review component is submitted to the manager of the appropriate department for their review. This becomes a last-resort scenario in that traditionally, managers indicate changes that exist outside the scope of the project. Review delays present unique difficulties in that not every team member provides feedback as to their daily availability.
Pre-Production and Printing Delays: The preproduction team will transition the artwork from its final design to printer-ready artwork. There is typically no risk for delay in this area. The printer will then produce a final round of art proofs calibrated to their individual presses. One round of revisions is already assumed and build into this process. Additional revisions are not typical though can present a nominal risk. Corporate Delays: While exceeding unusual, corporate can play a small role in delaying a project by canceling one or more packaging designs, adding addition package designs above and beyond what management has previously approved, or by simply delaying the provision of final approval on all finished designed submitted. While these scenarios are unlikely, they do represent the extreme limit of delay-related risk in that they can affect the project for an indeterminate amount of time.
Qualified and Quantified Risk Matrix
The following tables serve as a graphic representation of the Quantitative Risk Assessment Table, the Quantitative Risk Assessment Matrix, and the Quantitative Risk Response Table:
Quantitative Risk Assessment Table
Risk Event
Likelihood
of Risk
Impact
of Risk
Detection Difficulty
When
Management Delays
1
1
1
Initial project inception
Design Delays
2
3
2
At the height of the project
Review Delays
5
2
2
At the height of the project
Pre-Production and Printing Delays
2
1
2
Towards the end of the project
Corporate Delays
1
5
5
Most likely just before Pre-Production but may occur at any point during the project
Scope: Scale ranges from 1 (nominal) to 5 (extreme).
Quantitative Risk Assessment Matrix
Impact of Risk
1
2
3
4
5
Likelihood of Risk
5
Review Delays
4
3
2
Pre-Production and Printing Delays
Design Delays
1
Management Delays
Corporate Delays
GREEN indicates potentially nominal risk impact, YELLOW indicates potentially moderate risk impact, RED indicates potentially severe risk impact
Quantitative Risk Response Table
Risk Event
Risk Response
(Accept Risk, Reduce Risk, Share Risk,
Blame Someone Else)
Contingency Plan
Risk Trigger
Risk Moderator
Management Delays
Accept Risk
None needed as management will establish the extent of the project and associated parameters
Indications from management regarding initial issues.
Project Manager
Design Delays
Reduce Risk
Check design schedules and coordinate design time with other departments. Enlist external design companies as needed.
Delays due to scheduling conflicts with other jobs for other departments.
Project Manager
Review Delays
Reduce Risk
Consistent communication with key reviewers. Engage alternate reviews if primary reviews are unavailable. Enlist managers is alternate reviewers are unavailable.
Greater than two days review time by each responsible team member.
Project Manager
Pre-Production and Printing Delays
Reduce Risk
Constant communication with pre-production team and printer will reduce or eliminate risks. Buffers in timing are already built into production times.
Delays indicated by pre-production team or printer.
Project Manager
Corporate Delays
Blame Someone Else
Corporate has final say… blame them.
Delays indicated by Corporate.
Management
References
Cooper, D. F., Grey, S., Raymond, G., & Walker, P. (2005). Project risk management guidelines: Managing risk in large projects and complex procurements. West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons.
InvestorWords.com. (2014). quantitative risk assessment. Retrieved October 1, 2014, from http://www.investorwords.com/19179/quantitative_risk_assessment.html Loch, C. H., DeMeyer, A., & Pich, M. T. (2006). Managing the unknown: A new approach to managing high uncertainty and risk in projects. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley &
Sons.
Quantitative Risk Assessment
Jeffrey Smith
University of Phoenix
PM/584 Project Risk Management
Leon Baudot
October 6, 2014
Quantitative Risk Assessment
For the project of redesigning packing for the Canadian market, quantitative risk assessment plays an important role. Quantitative risk assessment is, “A process for assigning a numeric value to the probability of loss based on known risks and available, objective data… used to determine potential direct and indirect costs to the company based on values assigned to company assets and their exposure to risk” (InvestorWords.com, 2014). For this particular project, quantitative risk assessment will be useful in determining not only which …show more content…
are areas of potential risk, but also to what degree these risks may affect the overall integrity of the project.
Revised Project Background
The project of the redesign of packaging for the Canadian market currently consists of four different product lines including Dial, Tone, Right Guard, and Dry Idea, and consists of over 50 variants spanning the four lines. Each new packaging design is independent of every other thus there exists no interdependency from design to the next. Each design observes a similar path consisting of initial review of changes, alterations, and additions by management, marketing, and the design team, initial layout of established changes by the design team followed by a first round review of changes by marketing, legal, management and compliance. If additional changes are required, a second round of design and review is implemented up to two additional rounds as needed. Upon successful acknowledgement of new designs, the artwork is then sent to our preproduction team for development to printer-ready artwork. Once completed, the artwork is sent to a third party production house for mockups to be created to be sent to the parent company in Germany for final approval. If any designs are rejected (and they never are), commentary from Germany is implemented into further redesign and the process is restarted. Upon approval from Germany, artwork is submitted to the printer. Printer will then submit print-ready, color-calibrated proofs for final approval. Proofs are reviewed by management for final approval before actual printing. Once printed, packaging is sent to a fulfillment house to have labels applied to containers and filled with product or have wraps applied to soap bars. Upon completion of fulfillment, finished product is shipped to various holding facilities in Canada for final disposition. As previously stated, project will span eight months from inception to final delivery.
Risk Identification Framework
Management Delays: As the majority of the work for this project involves objective changes and adjustments to existing packaging, the first phase, initial review by management, involves nominal risk. Management will evaluate and select which products will receive updated treatment for inclusion into the Canadian market. Once the products are selected, management has no further involvement outside of potential cancellations of various packaging designs or their requested involvement during a particular phase of completion.
Design Delays: As this project includes approximately 50 variants of packaging including labels and wraps, production must be coordinated to allow for enough time for completion of initial layouts and any necessary revisions, while taking into consideration the design needs and time constrains on the design team from other departments and for other projects running concurrently. While the project has a timeline of eight months, final design layouts must be approved and ready for preproduction within the first four months of the project. The in-house design team will complete the bulk of the design phase of the project, though external design agencies may be utilized if time constraints are threatened. It should be noted that the use of external design agencies would incur additional costs. Also, the design process will require an initial review before being released to the review team for official review, to ensure all parameters have been incorporated.
Review Delays: This area constitutes the bulk of all potential delays. While each packaging component is independent of one another, the review process for each component must be completed sequentially among the review team. There are five departments that will review each design layout and either approve or denote changes. Some of these potential changes are subject to additional changes or cancellations by other departments, meaning the first team may indicate several changes that the third team can then override if the indicated changes are deemed unnecessary. Also, the number of rounds of review may add potential delays to the overall project.
Another potential area of delay exists with the timely completion of review by the required departments. Certain key staff may be unavailable to review a packaging design during a given time period. To circumvent potential risks, each member of the review staff will have two alternative staff members capable of reviewing each package design. Should no staff members be available to review, the particular review component is submitted to the manager of the appropriate department for their review. This becomes a last-resort scenario in that traditionally, managers indicate changes that exist outside the scope of the project. Review delays present unique difficulties in that not every team member provides feedback as to their daily availability.
Pre-Production and Printing Delays: The preproduction team will transition the artwork from its final design to printer-ready artwork. There is typically no risk for delay in this area. The printer will then produce a final round of art proofs calibrated to their individual presses. One round of revisions is already assumed and build into this process. Additional revisions are not typical though can present a nominal risk. Corporate Delays: While exceeding unusual, corporate can play a small role in delaying a project by canceling one or more packaging designs, adding addition package designs above and beyond what management has previously approved, or by simply delaying the provision of final approval on all finished designed submitted. While these scenarios are unlikely, they do represent the extreme limit of delay-related risk in that they can affect the project for an indeterminate amount of time.
Qualified and Quantified Risk Matrix
The following tables serve as a graphic representation of the Quantitative Risk Assessment Table, the Quantitative Risk Assessment Matrix, and the Quantitative Risk Response Table:
Quantitative Risk Assessment Table
Risk Event
Likelihood
of Risk
Impact
of Risk
Detection Difficulty
When
Management Delays
1
1
1
Initial project inception
Design Delays
2
3
2
At the height of the project
Review Delays
5
2
2
At the height of the project
Pre-Production and Printing Delays
2
1
2
Towards the end of the project
Corporate Delays
1
5
5
Most likely just before Pre-Production but may occur at any point during the project
Scope: Scale ranges from 1 (nominal) to 5 (extreme).
Quantitative Risk Assessment Matrix
Impact of Risk
1
2
3
4
5
Likelihood of Risk
5
Review Delays
4
3
2
Pre-Production and Printing Delays
Design Delays
1
Management Delays
Corporate Delays
GREEN indicates potentially nominal risk impact, YELLOW indicates potentially moderate risk impact, RED indicates potentially severe risk impact
Quantitative Risk Response Table
Risk Event
Risk Response
(Accept Risk, Reduce Risk, Share Risk,
Blame Someone Else)
Contingency Plan
Risk Trigger
Risk Moderator
Management Delays
Accept Risk
None needed as management will establish the extent of the project and associated parameters
Indications from management regarding initial issues.
Project Manager
Design Delays
Reduce Risk
Check design schedules and coordinate design time with other departments. Enlist external design companies as needed.
Delays due to scheduling conflicts with other jobs for other departments.
Project Manager
Review Delays
Reduce Risk
Consistent communication with key reviewers. Engage alternate reviews if primary reviews are unavailable. Enlist managers is alternate reviewers are unavailable.
Greater than two days review time by each responsible team member.
Project Manager
Pre-Production and Printing Delays
Reduce Risk
Constant communication with pre-production team and printer will reduce or eliminate risks. Buffers in timing are already built into production times.
Delays indicated by pre-production team or printer.
Project Manager
Corporate Delays
Blame Someone Else
Corporate has final say… blame them.
Delays indicated by Corporate.
Management
References
Cooper, D. F., Grey, S., Raymond, G., & Walker, P. (2005). Project risk management guidelines: Managing risk in large projects and complex procurements. West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons.
InvestorWords.com. (2014). quantitative risk assessment. Retrieved October 1, 2014, from http://www.investorwords.com/19179/quantitative_risk_assessment.html Loch, C. H., DeMeyer, A., & Pich, M. T. (2006). Managing the unknown: A new approach to managing high uncertainty and risk in projects. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley &
Sons.