Political Culture of Kazakhstan
Managing Change in Egypt
Advancing a New U.S. Policy that Balances Regional Security with Support for Egyptian Political and Economic Reforms
By Brian Katulis June 2012
w w w.americanprogress.org
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS/PETE MullER
Managing Change in Egypt
Advancing a New U.S. Policy that Balances Regional Security with Support for Egyptian Political and Economic Reforms
By Brian Katulis June 2012
Contents
1 Introduction and summary 5 U.S. national security interests in Egypt 9 Egypt’s political, economic, and security transitions 18 A new U.S. policy: Managing change in Egypt 28 Conclusion 30 About the authors and acknowledgements 31 Endnotes
Introduction and summary
Egypt is in the midst of a series of major political, security, and economic transitions that will unfold for years to come. The 2012 presidential elections set to conclude later this month in a final run-off election mark the end of one period in this transition. But Egypt faces a long road ahead, including drafting a new constitution, setting checks and balances in the new political system, and concluding trials for former leaders in previous governments. The world’s most populous Arab nation could transition into something that resembles Turkey, with a greater voice for Islamist parties and curbs on the previously unchecked power of the security establishment. Or Egypt could transition toward a scenario similar to Pakistan, in which the military and internal security forces continue to hold significant political power and dominate key sectors of the economy. Most likely Egypt will carve out its own path with its transition shaped by multiple centers of power—some that have emerged since the popular uprising in 2011 and others that have existed for decades. The path Egypt takes will have major implications for the rest of the region. The changes in the formal structures and internal balance of power in Egypt’s government, alongside the social and economic transformations
Advancing a New U.S. Policy that Balances Regional Security with Support for Egyptian Political and Economic Reforms
By Brian Katulis June 2012
w w w.americanprogress.org
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS/PETE MullER
Managing Change in Egypt
Advancing a New U.S. Policy that Balances Regional Security with Support for Egyptian Political and Economic Reforms
By Brian Katulis June 2012
Contents
1 Introduction and summary 5 U.S. national security interests in Egypt 9 Egypt’s political, economic, and security transitions 18 A new U.S. policy: Managing change in Egypt 28 Conclusion 30 About the authors and acknowledgements 31 Endnotes
Introduction and summary
Egypt is in the midst of a series of major political, security, and economic transitions that will unfold for years to come. The 2012 presidential elections set to conclude later this month in a final run-off election mark the end of one period in this transition. But Egypt faces a long road ahead, including drafting a new constitution, setting checks and balances in the new political system, and concluding trials for former leaders in previous governments. The world’s most populous Arab nation could transition into something that resembles Turkey, with a greater voice for Islamist parties and curbs on the previously unchecked power of the security establishment. Or Egypt could transition toward a scenario similar to Pakistan, in which the military and internal security forces continue to hold significant political power and dominate key sectors of the economy. Most likely Egypt will carve out its own path with its transition shaped by multiple centers of power—some that have emerged since the popular uprising in 2011 and others that have existed for decades. The path Egypt takes will have major implications for the rest of the region. The changes in the formal structures and internal balance of power in Egypt’s government, alongside the social and economic transformations