Political Risk in Malaysia
Political risk in Malaysia
Executive Summary
• The fact that Prime Minister Mahathir has seen fit to take a two month vacation is the strongest evidence in a long time that his position within UMNO remains unchallenged. The political succession issue also seems clearer now that Mahathir has permitted his deputy to assume the title of Acting Prime Minister. Such a privilege was not given to trusted lieutenant Ghafar Baba in 1989, when the prime minister was recovering from a coronary bypass operation. Anwar's performance will be watched closely in the coming weeks. Another test of the extent to which Mahathir is at ease with Anwar will be the degree to which the prime minister gives Anwar free reign to deal with any public controversies which arise while he is on leave. • The by-election victory of the opposition Democratic Action Party in Perak in mid-May surprised many observers. However, it would be an exaggeration to suggest that the result portends a significant shift of ethnic Chinese support away from the government in the nation as a whole. Local issues were paramount in the campaign, and voters knew that they could support the opposition without threatening the National Front's two-thirds majority in parliament. • The differing approaches taken by Malay politicians (who have been calling for a tough stand against Singapore) and the Chinese business community (which has been urging moderation) has not yet led to any appreciable rise in ethnic tension. However, the situation could change quite significantly should Malay leaders suggest that the nation's ethnic Chinese were siding with Singapore. • Tension between Singapore and Malaysia has remained remarkably persistent, over the last few weeks, egged on by the semi-official press in both countries. An informal boycott of Malaysia by Singapore travel agencies during the school holiday season has been followed by a variety of tit for tat moves in Malaysia aimed at reducing Malaysian
Executive Summary
• The fact that Prime Minister Mahathir has seen fit to take a two month vacation is the strongest evidence in a long time that his position within UMNO remains unchallenged. The political succession issue also seems clearer now that Mahathir has permitted his deputy to assume the title of Acting Prime Minister. Such a privilege was not given to trusted lieutenant Ghafar Baba in 1989, when the prime minister was recovering from a coronary bypass operation. Anwar's performance will be watched closely in the coming weeks. Another test of the extent to which Mahathir is at ease with Anwar will be the degree to which the prime minister gives Anwar free reign to deal with any public controversies which arise while he is on leave. • The by-election victory of the opposition Democratic Action Party in Perak in mid-May surprised many observers. However, it would be an exaggeration to suggest that the result portends a significant shift of ethnic Chinese support away from the government in the nation as a whole. Local issues were paramount in the campaign, and voters knew that they could support the opposition without threatening the National Front's two-thirds majority in parliament. • The differing approaches taken by Malay politicians (who have been calling for a tough stand against Singapore) and the Chinese business community (which has been urging moderation) has not yet led to any appreciable rise in ethnic tension. However, the situation could change quite significantly should Malay leaders suggest that the nation's ethnic Chinese were siding with Singapore. • Tension between Singapore and Malaysia has remained remarkably persistent, over the last few weeks, egged on by the semi-official press in both countries. An informal boycott of Malaysia by Singapore travel agencies during the school holiday season has been followed by a variety of tit for tat moves in Malaysia aimed at reducing Malaysian