Population Growth
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Page 1
June 2001 version
Paper to be presented at IUSSP Conference in Brazil/session-s09
Population Growth and Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Anqing Shi
Development Research Group
The World Bank
Keywords: Population, global warming, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, projections
Abstract: Previous studies on the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions have primarily focused on the role of affluence. The impact of population growth on carbon dioxide emissions has received less attention.
This paper takes a step forward providing such empirical evidence, using a data set of 93 countries for the period of 1975-1996. The paper has following findings. (1) Population growth has been one of the major driving forces behind increasing carbon dioxide emissions worldwide over the last two decades. It is estimated that half of increase in emissions by 2025 will be contributed by future population growth alone.
(2) Rising income levels have been associated with a monotonically upward shift in emissions.
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The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are entirely those of the author. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. I thank Bob
Cull, Phillip Keefer, Steve Knack, Brian O’Neill, and William Martin for very helpful comments. Author’s email address: ashi@worldbank.org.
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2
1. Issue
The last two decades have witnessed an unprecedented global warming. This has brought about great concerns over its causes and consequences. Scientists claimed that the increasing carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) produced a massive build-up of greenhouse gas, which gave rise to recent warm temperatures (IPCC 1995; Watson et al.
1996). International negotiations
Google automatically generates html versions of documents as we crawl the web.
Page 1
June 2001 version
Paper to be presented at IUSSP Conference in Brazil/session-s09
Population Growth and Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Anqing Shi
Development Research Group
The World Bank
Keywords: Population, global warming, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, projections
Abstract: Previous studies on the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions have primarily focused on the role of affluence. The impact of population growth on carbon dioxide emissions has received less attention.
This paper takes a step forward providing such empirical evidence, using a data set of 93 countries for the period of 1975-1996. The paper has following findings. (1) Population growth has been one of the major driving forces behind increasing carbon dioxide emissions worldwide over the last two decades. It is estimated that half of increase in emissions by 2025 will be contributed by future population growth alone.
(2) Rising income levels have been associated with a monotonically upward shift in emissions.
__________________________
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are entirely those of the author. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. I thank Bob
Cull, Phillip Keefer, Steve Knack, Brian O’Neill, and William Martin for very helpful comments. Author’s email address: ashi@worldbank.org.
________________________________________
Page 2
2
1. Issue
The last two decades have witnessed an unprecedented global warming. This has brought about great concerns over its causes and consequences. Scientists claimed that the increasing carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) produced a massive build-up of greenhouse gas, which gave rise to recent warm temperatures (IPCC 1995; Watson et al.
1996). International negotiations