Population Growth and Problems of Ageing and Urbanization in Asia Pacific

GEOINFORMATICS EA Midterm REPORT
Population Growth and Problems of Ageing and Urbanization in Asia Pacific Name: ALDARAH, Jasem Ahmed A
ID No 12409147

Contents: 1. Introduction 2. Population growth in Asia Pacific in 1990-2009 and now 3. Demographic trends and Issues ,related to rapid population growth in region: a. Ageing b. Urbanization 4. Conclusion :Some solutions and recommendations to the demographic related problems in the region

Introduction

Asia Pacific region with approximately 4.3 billion people, it hosts 60% of the world's current human population. During the 20th century Asia's population nearly quadrupled. The region is right now in rapid demographic transition.
Population growth in the Asia-Pacific region is much slower overall than in previous decades, but the situation differs from one country to another, particularly in the components of growth – fertility, mortality and migration. Moreover, while many countries still have high levels of fertility, an increasing number have started to feel the impact of population ageing and urbanization- the major problems caused by the rapid population growth in the region.
The paper will focus on the population growth rate in Asia Pacific, as well as on two major issues caused by this growth- ageing and urbanization and will consist of some recommendations on some action that have to be done in order to ensure the stable economic growth and to deal with the above mentioned demographic issues.

Population Growth in Asia Pacific Historical populations | Year | Pop. | ±% | 1500 | 243,000,000 | — | 1700 | 436,000,000 | +79.4% | 1900 | 947,000,000 | +117.2% | 1950 | 1,402,000,000 | +48.0% | 1999 | 3,634,000,000 | +159.2% | Source: "UN report 2004 data" (PDF). | |

Since 1990, the population of the Asia-Pacific region has been growing more slowly than that of the rest of the world. Between 1990 and 1995, it grew 1.5% annually but subsequently the growth rate declined steadily. By 2008, annual growth had fallen to 1.0% – the lowest rate among the world’s developing regions.
Because more than half the region’s population are in China and India the region’s statistical averages are largely determined by these two countries. This can mask considerable variations between other countries, or groups of countries. Thus, although in 2008 the average population growth rate for Asia and the Pacific as a whole was 1.0%, in the landlocked developing countries it was 1.7%, in the least developed countries it was 1.6%, in the high-income economies it was 0.3%, and in the low-income economies it was 1.4%.
Other countries currently experiencing population growth rates of 2.0% or more are: Macao, China;; Pakistan; Papua New Guinea; Singapore etc.
In East and North-East Asia in 2008, the population growth rate was above 1.0% only in Mongolia and Macao, China. Countries where growth rates were positive but low – less than 1.0% a year – included:; DPR Korea; Hong Kong, China; Myanmar; Republic of Korea; Sri Lanka, Thailand; and several Pacific island developing economies whose population growth rates have been reduced by net outmigration.

Figure 1.1 Population growth for Asia Pacific region , 1990-2008

Demographic related issues related to rapid population growth in the region
a.Ageing
Recent decades have yielded considerable transformations in the population structure in Asia and the Pacific owing to changes in birth and death rates in the region. Projections based on recent trends foretell that issues of population ageing will become increasingly important, with significant and pervasive social, economic and political implications. Hence, planning for the future merits priority consideration of the ageing of societies.
The number of older persons (age 65 and above) in the region is estimated to increase threefold, from 420 million in 2010 to almost 1.3 billion by 2050, by which time older persons are expected to constitute almost 25% of the total regional population.1 The estimated 2050 rate is greater than that of Japan in 2010 (23%). Indeed, in Japan, along with China and other countries in East and North-East Asia, one third of the population is expected to be over the age of 60 years by 2050.
Population ageing has a significant gender dimension. The proportion of women increases greatly in the older age groups, especially so among the “oldest of the old”, those aged 80 years and above. Older women are generally more vulnerable to discrimination, abuse, poverty and social isolation than older men. Hence, the impacts of ageing on older women warrant particular attention.
The diversity of demographic transition in the region is reflected in having three distinctive sets of countries in relation to population ageing: countries or areas (such as Japan) whose population has already aged; those (such as Hong Kong, China, Macao, China, Singapore), whose population is likely to age very rapidly in the near future; and those (such as Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan) whose population is still young and ageing slowly or moderately. The intensity of ageing in the Asian and Pacific region is bound to increase at a faster rate in the next 50 years with the share of population over 60 years of age more than doubling from 9.4 per cent of the total.

B.- Urbanization
Approximately 3.5 billion people, 58% of the world’s population, live in Asia and the Pacific3, an area accounting for only about 30% of the Earth’s land space. Several of the most populous countries in the world are found in the region, including China with 1.3 billion people and India with 1.2 billion4, together accounting for almost 40% of the world’s population. Five of the six countries that account for half of the global annual population growth belong to the region, namely Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, and
Pakistan.
According to population projections by the United Nations5, a constant increase in population is expected in all subregions; total population will increase by approximately 700 million in the region between 2000 and 2015.. The largest increase in population is expected in the relatively poor economies

In 2010, 43% of the Asia and the Pacific population lived in urban areas, the second lowest urban proportion of a region in the world; however, in the last two decades the Asia-Pacific urban proportion has risen by 29%, more than any other region.
Between 2005 and 2010, the urbanized proportion of the world’s population overtook the rural population (rising from 49% in 2005 to 51% in 2010); and the urban population continues to grow (the average annual growth between 2005 and 2010 was 1.9%). As of 2010, Asia and the Pacific is the second least urbanized region of the world, with only 43% of the population living in urban areas; however, it has the second fastest urban population growth rate, at an average of 2.0% per annum (2005-2010).
The largest growth of urban populations is in South and Southeast Asia, with a growth rate of over 3% per annum. By contrast, growth rates in the Pacific, Northeast Asia, and Central Asia during the last two decades are relatively low, with growth rates of between 1-3% per annum. In Central Asia, the urban population growth rate is expected to drastically increase in the future, and 55% of the total population in the subregion will live in urban areas.

Population in Largest cities 1999-2009 Country Name | 2009 | 1990 | 1999 | | | | | | | American Samoa | 59905 | 35455 | 45952 | | | | | | | Australia | 4395036 | 3631804 | 4027692 | | | | | | | Brunei Darussalam | 22228 | 46297 | 30479 | | | | | | | Cambodia | 1519330 | 615000 | 1123682 | | | | | | | China | 16344031 | 7822912 | 12547095 | | | | | | | Fiji | 174066 | 150964 | 169284 | | | | | | | French Polynesia | 132980 | 103698 | 117884 | | | | | | | Guam | 152915 | 111560 | 130026 | | | | | | | Hong Kong SAR, China | 7022088 | 5676932 | 6594230 | | | | | | | Indonesia | 9120729 | 8175422 | 8375901 | | | | | | | Japan | 36506588 | 32530003 | 34276928 | | | | | | | Kiribati | 42925 | 25136 | 34286 | | | | | | | Korea, Dem. Rep. | 2827641 | 2525965 | 2771600 | | | | | | | Korea, Rep. | 9777721 | 10543984 | 9983989 | | | | | | | Lao PDR | 799170 | 451482 | 595035 | | | | | | | Macao SAR, China | 537972 | 371269 | 434216 | | | | | | | Malaysia | 1493497 | 1120411 | 1286446 | | | | | | | Marshall Islands | 29601 | 20236 | 23710 | | | | | | | Micronesia, Fed. Sts. | 6941 | 5456 | 6163 | | | | | | | Mongolia | 948719 | 571692 | 741923 | | | | | | | Myanmar | 4258857 | 2906697 | 3482064 | | | | | | | New Caledonia | 143577 | 101848 | 125427 | | | | | | | New Zealand | 1359572 | 869681 | 1046000 | | | | | | | Northern Mariana Islands | 79270 | 39288 | 60130 | | | | | | | Palau | 12454 | 10155 | 12982 | | | | | | | Papua New Guinea | 313593 | 195319 | 247431 | | | | | | | Philippines | 11449193 | 7972799 | 9845191 | | | | | | | Samoa | 36433 | 34202 | 38355 | | | | | | | Singapore | 4736878 | 3016380 | 3932862 | | | | | | | Solomon Islands | 71921 | 34734 | 48403 | | | | | | | Thailand | 6901694 | 5888378 | 6285748 | | | | | | | Timor-Leste | 166441 | 122324 | 140272 | | | | | | | Tonga | 24260 | 21472 | 22578 | | | | | | | Tuvalu | 4956 | 3618 | 4324 | | | | | | | Vanuatu | 43629 | 20198 | 28920 | | | | | | | Vietnam | 5976051 | 3411306 | 4165216 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |

The Asia Pacific region is home to two-thirds of the human population, and it is estimated that by 2050, 70 percent of global population will be residing in cities. On top of existing issues like poverty and corruption, emerging problems like resource security and global climate change are adding to the challenges.
Within the Asia Pacific Region, cities are home to some 1.6 billion people, tapped to increase to 2.3 billion by 2025. To provide for the needs of this expanding population is an increasing challenge. Cities currently consume around 67 percent of total energy use, generate 300 million tonnes of solid waste per year, and pollute mass bodies of water so that life cannot exist.
All of these changes have implications for resource use and pressure on the environment.
Primarily as a result of rural-to-urban migration, Asia is the fastest urbanizing region in the world. According to United Nations estimates, the urban population in Asia will nearly double. By 2015, the urban population of Asia Pacific will be larger than the urban population of all the other regions of the world combined (United Nations 2001b). Population growth continues for many years after fertility reaches replacement level, so the sooner fertility can be brought down the sooner the process toward stabilizing population numbers can begin.

Conclusion: Some solutions and recommendations to the demographic related problems in the region
a.Ageing
Appropriate policies and programmes are required to address (a) the needs of older persons and (b) the societywide ramifications of an ageing population – the requisite socio-economic adjustments to accommodate transition to an ageing society.
Governments respond to the challenges now would be a deciding factor in the well-being of not only the current young and the elderly but also future generations. The diversity in the ageing experience in the region would require different policy responses in each set of countries depending on their current and expected levels of ageing and institutional settings. One positive sign is the still moderate rate of ageing in large economies such as India and Indonesia, which have ample room to benefit from the current wave of rapid ageing in the rest of the world by effective utilization of their labor force, as well as to prepare to face the challenges posed by the ageing of their populations well in advance. Population ageing could have profound implications for the economies as well as societies experiencing a rapid increase in the share of older persons in the total population. While the rising demand for medical services in old age and high medical costs could impose pressure on government and family budgets, an ageing population could lead to a drastic shift in the consumption and savings behavior of people. Ageing can also lead to the emergence of social welfare and gender-related issues. Increase in fertility, removing restrictions on having large families and promoting early marriage could reverse the future demographic trend. Some countries have already taken steps in this direction. For example, countries such as Singapore provide incentives such as housing priority for large and multigeneration families, flexitime for mothers to nurture their children, cash and fiscal incentives, child-care subsidies and enhanced child relief in income taxation. However, changing the hard-earned gains of low fertility may not be a good choice for certain countries as overcrowding could create serious problems.
b.Urbanization
Rapid economic development in the developing countries of Asia and the Pacific region has lifted millions of people from extreme poverty. The Asian "economic miracle" is driven by the cities, and in turn drives city growth and social transformation. The poor have benefited from economic opportunities that the cities offered. But the wealth production of cities has not necessarily contributed to improved living conditions for the vast majority of Asia's urban population.
It is time for countries to be proactive and take far-sighted action to fully exploit the opportunities that urbanization offers. In a regional context, it has to act now to begin a concerted regional effort to help cities unleash their potential to spur economic growth and solve social problems. Developing and financing livable, competitive, socially inclusive, and environmentally attractive cities is central to Asia's future prosperity and well-being. By rising educational attainments, growth of the middle class and declining birth rates can play in helping improve the environment, if properly managed. Urbanisation—the increase of urban share of total population—is inevitable, but it can also be positive.The current concentration of poverty, slum growth and social disruption in cities does paint a threatening picture. Yet, no country in the industrial age has ever achieved significant economic growth without urbanisation. Cities concentrate poverty, but they also represent the best hope of escaping it.

The way forward now, it seems, is for stakeholders—in particular policymakers—to plan for this growth. For, to state the obvious, the growth is going to put pressure on the availability of food, water, space, employment opportunities, housing and other essential services.

As well, it will accentuate existing social problems of crimes, diseases and poverty.

Reference:
1.United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, Urban Agglomerations, 1950-2015 (The 1996 Revision),
2. Cities expected to grow by >50% by 2015.1. United Nations (U.N.) Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 1996 Revision, Annex Tables (U.N., New York, 1997), pp. 44, 48.
3. World Resources Institute in collaboration with the United Nations Environment Programme, the United Nations Development Programme, and the World Bank, World Resources Report 1996- 97 (Oxford University Press, New York, 1996), p. 3.
4. The World Bank, World Development Report 1997 (The World Bank, Washington, D.C., 1997), p. 231.
5.http://www.unescap.org/stat/data/syb2009/1-Demographic-trends.asphttp://www.unescap.org/stat/data/syb2011/I-People/Population.asp
6. Development Alternatives, 2003. “South Asian Priority Paper for UNEP”
7. World Bank, 2002. World Development Indicators 2002. World Bank, Washington D.C.
8. UN-ESCAP and ADB, 2000. State of the Environment in Asia and the Pacific 2000, United Nations, New York.

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