Power Shift Analysis

In his article Power shift: rethinking Australia’s place in the Asian century Hugh White intends to outline that China’s rise as a major economic and military power in East Asia will have to result in the Commonwealth’s revision of Australia’s strategic interests, followed by corresponding alterations of the nation’s foreign policies. He argues that Australia’s interests are most likely to be met in the future if the major East Asian powers can agree on a shared regional leadership to guarantee continued security and economic growth, an outcome Australia should actively seek to facilitate. Although the review shares the opinion that the Commonwealth should aim to act as a mediator between China and the United States, it notices that White fails
to take economic interdependencies and the role of international institutional frameworks into account.
White states that American military supremacy and its strategic leadership in East Asia throughout the past 40 years guaranteed security in the region, which provided the ground for political and economic development, the latter especially in China. While Australia also profited from this secure environment, the author advises the Commonwealth to reconsider its strategic positioning in light of China’s increasing strive for economic and military power (White 2011, p. 83). He considers the possibility of a future Chinese economic backlash, but comes to the conclusion that continued growth of the nation’s economy is the more likely outcome, which will result in greater economic interdependency of other Asian countries to China and continued growth of the Asian nation’s military capabilities. Despite the growing ability of China to influence other regional nations, White highlights
that China also depends on the stability of the region to proceed its economic growth and would face stark opposition by the other regional powers if it attempted to establish Chinese hegemony in Asia (White 2011, p. 85). The author is of the opinion that bipolar or multipolar leadership as a ‘Concert of Asia’ is possible if China and the United Sates can agree on such an order while placing strict limits on their military advancements in the region (White 2011, p. 87). He advises the Australian government to support the building of such a balance of power, especially by lobbying the American administration. At the same time, White recommends Australia to strengthen its own military capabilities to prevent any attempt of a major power from launching an attack against the country. The aim of the author is to initiate a rethinking of Australia’s strategic

The paper rightly assesses that Australia needs to move away from its traditional reliance on American military support, since such a policy requires Australia to assist the States in military missions not only in distant conflicts but also in regional affairs (White 2011, p. 91).
Given the fact that regional disputes could potentially involve confrontation between the United States and China, unreserved support of the States would thus lead to heightened insecurity for Australia.
It is, however, questionable if Australia should seek greater self-reliance through increased military expenditures as White recommends.
Even as a military middle power, without the reliance on U.S. armed support, Australia would not be able to defend itself against a major power like China (Cheeseman 1991, pp. 443-444). Building-up of military capabilities would rather demonstrate distrust in China as a responsible regional player.
Instead, moving away from military cooperation with the States offers the prospect for Australia to establish itself as a neutral nation, which would in turn most likely lead to greater trust in Australia by China (Dalby 1996, p. 70). Given its increasing economic linkage to China, further improved relations would also decrease the likelihood of an attack by another regional player in light of a possible destabilization of the region.

White’s idea of a ‘Concert of Asia’ as the best outcome for Australia’s future strategic interests would indeed provide the opportunity to satisfy China’s demand for greater regional power, allow the U.S.
to retain its influence in East Asia and facilitate a greater sense of security for other East Asian countries (White 2011, p. 86). White emphasizes in this context that it would be essential for the regional actors to declare their willingness for military actions against Chinese aggression (White 2011, p. 87).
While it is essential to establish rules and retaliatory measures to avoid an ineffective appeasement policy, military threat should yet not be the only measure to assist regional security. The paper lacks the outlining of a possible institutional framework that would assist the establishment of a ‘Concert of Asia’.
From a liberalist point of view, cooperation in international institutions leads to greater international security. A possible solution to overcome an arms race in the Taiwan Strait might for example include its complete demilitarisation and deployment of controlling forces that include members of all regional actors. Institutionalized economic cooperation would also aid the same end. Australian mediation to establish such frameworks would help to underline its role as a ‘good international citizen’ and thus promote its own
security.

While the article recognises that Australia could play a mediating role in the creation of a bipolar or even multipolar East Asian security environment (White 2011, p. 91), it mainly focuses on the Commonwealth’s ability to convince the U.S. from the benefits of such a setting.
Given China’s trade dependence on Australia and other South East Asian nations (Rudd 2011), the paper neglects to outline that convincing China to enter greater regional cooperation with the United States would not only be in the realms of possibility but rather a necessity to avoid future disputes between the two nations.
White mainly focuses on the different political system in China that poses a barrier to negotiations with the Communist country about security settings in the region (White 2011, p. 83).
Although it is true that the different political system stands often in the way of talks about China’s internal politics, China has shown to be able to adapt itself to the international arena. The change towards a market-oriented economy provides not only a good example but has also created improved conditions for international cooperation. References

Cheeseman, G 1991, ‘From forward defence to self-reliance: changes and continuities in Australian defence policy 1965-90’, Australian Journal of Political Science, vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 429-445 Dalby, S 1996, ‘Continent adrift?: Dissident security discourse and the Australian geopolitical imagination’, Australian Journal of International Affairs, vol. 50, no. 1, pp. 59-75

Rudd, K 2011, Australian foreign policy and the Asia Pacific century, speech, accessed 12 September 2011, <http://www.foreignminister.gov.au/speeches/2011/kr_sp_110503.html>

White, H 2011, ‘Power shift: rethinking Australia’s place in the Asian century’, Australian Journal of International Affairs, vol. 65, no. 1, pp 81-93