Ppc Chapter 3
PERENCANAAN & PENGENDALIAN PRODUKSI
TIN 4113
Pertemuan 2
• Outline:
– – – – – Karakteristik Peramalan Cakupan Peramalan Klasifikasi Peramalan Metode Forecast: Time Series Simple Time Series Models:
• Moving Average (Simple & Weighted)
• Referensi:
– Smith, Spencer B., Computer Based Production and Inventory Control, Prentice-Hall, 1989. – Tersine, Richard J., Principles of Inventory and Materials Management, Prentice-Hall, 1994. – Pujawan, Demand Forecasting Lecture Note, IE-ITS, 2011.
Memprediksi masa depan...
Hal yang sangat sulit!!!!!
Every woman is frightened of a mouse. MGM head Louts B. Mayer in 1926, to young cartoonist named Walt Disney 640k ought to be enough for anybody. Bill Gates, Microsoft founder, 1981 The Internet will collapse within a year. Bob Metcalf, founder of 3Com Corporation, in December 1995
Sumber: Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry (Cook, 2006)
Cakupan Peramalan
• Berdasarkan Kategori Tingkat Keputusan
– Tingkat Kebijakan – Tingkat Produk – Tingkat Proses – Tingkat Desain Pabrik – Tingkat Operasional
Cakupan Peramalan
• Berdasarkan Unit Bisnis
– Perencanaan Keuangan – Perencanaan Pemasaran – Perencanaan Produksi – Perencanaan Penjadwalan
Characteristic of Forecasts
• Forecast involves error >>> they are usually wrong • Family forecast are more accurate than item forecast. Aggregate forecasts are more accurate. • Short-range forecasts are more accurate than long-range forecasts • A good forecast is more than a single number.
Demand Management
Where possible, calculate demand rather than forecast. If not possible...
Independent Demand
(finished goods and spare parts)
A
Dependent Demand
(components)
B(4)
C(2)
D(2)
E(1)
D(3)
F(2)
Demand Estimates
Sales Forecast
Production Resource Forecast
Examples of Production Resource Forecasts
Forecast Horizon Time Span Item Being Forecast
• Product lines • Factory capacities • Planning for new products • Capital
TIN 4113
Pertemuan 2
• Outline:
– – – – – Karakteristik Peramalan Cakupan Peramalan Klasifikasi Peramalan Metode Forecast: Time Series Simple Time Series Models:
• Moving Average (Simple & Weighted)
• Referensi:
– Smith, Spencer B., Computer Based Production and Inventory Control, Prentice-Hall, 1989. – Tersine, Richard J., Principles of Inventory and Materials Management, Prentice-Hall, 1994. – Pujawan, Demand Forecasting Lecture Note, IE-ITS, 2011.
Memprediksi masa depan...
Hal yang sangat sulit!!!!!
Every woman is frightened of a mouse. MGM head Louts B. Mayer in 1926, to young cartoonist named Walt Disney 640k ought to be enough for anybody. Bill Gates, Microsoft founder, 1981 The Internet will collapse within a year. Bob Metcalf, founder of 3Com Corporation, in December 1995
Sumber: Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry (Cook, 2006)
Cakupan Peramalan
• Berdasarkan Kategori Tingkat Keputusan
– Tingkat Kebijakan – Tingkat Produk – Tingkat Proses – Tingkat Desain Pabrik – Tingkat Operasional
Cakupan Peramalan
• Berdasarkan Unit Bisnis
– Perencanaan Keuangan – Perencanaan Pemasaran – Perencanaan Produksi – Perencanaan Penjadwalan
Characteristic of Forecasts
• Forecast involves error >>> they are usually wrong • Family forecast are more accurate than item forecast. Aggregate forecasts are more accurate. • Short-range forecasts are more accurate than long-range forecasts • A good forecast is more than a single number.
Demand Management
Where possible, calculate demand rather than forecast. If not possible...
Independent Demand
(finished goods and spare parts)
A
Dependent Demand
(components)
B(4)
C(2)
D(2)
E(1)
D(3)
F(2)
Demand Estimates
Sales Forecast
Production Resource Forecast
Examples of Production Resource Forecasts
Forecast Horizon Time Span Item Being Forecast
• Product lines • Factory capacities • Planning for new products • Capital