Pfizer and the Pharmaceutical Industry
Fletcher Leung
Analyst
Investment Analysis Group
February 15, 2002
Presentation Agenda
• Industry Overview: Research Based Pharmaceuticals
• Pfizer
– Company Specifics
– Performance
– Growth Drivers
• Valuation
– Comparables Analysis
– DCF
• Recommendation
February 15, 2002
Page 2
Investment Analysis Group
1
Industry Overview
Economic
•Cost Effective
Demographic
Sociocultural
•Aging Population
•Quality of Life
General
Environment
Political/Legal
Global
•Gov’t Regulation
•Unauthorized Imports
•Price Controls
•Intellectual Property
Technological
•Human Genome
•Development Time
February 15, 2002
Page 3
Investment Analysis Group
Industry Overview
Threat of New
Entrants
LOW
•High R&D Costs
•Long Production Cycle
Bargaining Power
Of Suppliers
LOW
•Bulk Purchasing
Rivalry Among Competing
Firms in Industry
HIGH
Bargaining Power of Buyers
HIGH
•Fragmented
•Shrinking exclusivity periods
•Managed Care
•Government
Threat of
Substitutes
HIGH
•Generics
•Counterfeit
•Unauthorized Imports
February 15, 2002
Page 4
Investment Analysis Group
2
Industry Overview
• Pharmaceuticals (Rx Drugs) only 8% of all health care spending
Rx Drugs,
0.08
Physician
Services,
0.22
Nursing,
0.07
Admin &
Net, 0.06
Other, 0.24
Hospital
Care, 0.32
February 15, 2002
Page 5
Investment Analysis Group
Industry Overview
• Health care growing as a percentage of
GDP
13%
12%
% of GDP
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
1970
February 15, 2002
1980
Page 6
1990
Investment Analysis Group
3
Pfizer: Company Specifics
• Research based, global pharmaceutical company Other, 2%
– Pharmaceuticals
– Confectionery
– Animal Health
– Consumer Products
Consumer
Prodcuts, 11%
Animal Health,
4%
Confectionery,
7%
Pharmaceuticals
, 76%
February 15, 2002