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India's economy
A five-star problem
Aug 30th 2013, 14:41 by P.F. | MUMBAI
THE rupee’s tumble continues to grip India. On August 29th Duvvuri Subbarao, the departing boss of the central bank, told an audience in Mumbai of the widespread “dismay about the ferocity of the depreciation”. Today, on August 30th, I spoke to the boss of a big hotel in the city who says he is preparing to dollarise his business. The rupee is too flaky to operate in, he said. “It’s just like Russia and Indonesia in the 1990s.” Shortly after this, Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, addressed parliament on the matter. While part of the currency slump is a “natural” correction to reflect high inflation, he said, “foreign exchange markets have a notorious history of overshooting. Unfortunately this is what is happening”.
That statement looks correct on a three-day time horizon. The rupee almost breached 69 per dollar earlier this week. On August 30th it bounced back to 65.7, making it the best-performing big currency worldwide that day, though still leaving it down 16% year-to-date. The vote by Britain’s parliament against military action in Syria has helped push down oil prices. That is helpful for India, a big energy importer. And some of the Reserve Bank of India’s tweaks have calmed nerves. On August 28th the central bank said it would provide dollars directly to India’s big oil-importing firms. That will stop them having to sell rupees in the spot market. It is an indirect way for the RBI to use its reserves to support the exchange rate.
Whether India’s currency has stabilised is another matter. There is plenty to worry about. The prospect of the Federal Reserve ending its purchases of bonds draws ever closer, especially with good news from the American economy this week. That means the “Great Exit” of money from emerging markets may continue. Both Indonesia and Brazil raised interest rates this week to protect their
Next
Latest Banyan
Latest from all our blogs
India's economy
A five-star problem
Aug 30th 2013, 14:41 by P.F. | MUMBAI
THE rupee’s tumble continues to grip India. On August 29th Duvvuri Subbarao, the departing boss of the central bank, told an audience in Mumbai of the widespread “dismay about the ferocity of the depreciation”. Today, on August 30th, I spoke to the boss of a big hotel in the city who says he is preparing to dollarise his business. The rupee is too flaky to operate in, he said. “It’s just like Russia and Indonesia in the 1990s.” Shortly after this, Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, addressed parliament on the matter. While part of the currency slump is a “natural” correction to reflect high inflation, he said, “foreign exchange markets have a notorious history of overshooting. Unfortunately this is what is happening”.
That statement looks correct on a three-day time horizon. The rupee almost breached 69 per dollar earlier this week. On August 30th it bounced back to 65.7, making it the best-performing big currency worldwide that day, though still leaving it down 16% year-to-date. The vote by Britain’s parliament against military action in Syria has helped push down oil prices. That is helpful for India, a big energy importer. And some of the Reserve Bank of India’s tweaks have calmed nerves. On August 28th the central bank said it would provide dollars directly to India’s big oil-importing firms. That will stop them having to sell rupees in the spot market. It is an indirect way for the RBI to use its reserves to support the exchange rate.
Whether India’s currency has stabilised is another matter. There is plenty to worry about. The prospect of the Federal Reserve ending its purchases of bonds draws ever closer, especially with good news from the American economy this week. That means the “Great Exit” of money from emerging markets may continue. Both Indonesia and Brazil raised interest rates this week to protect their