Provide a considered response to the following statement

Provide a considered response to the following statement, “The principles and rules for risk management appear to be just plain common sense.”
First we have to define what common sense is. Common sense is the everyday understandings and it based on everyday experience. It is a model of how the world works that we build up from our experience for example like personal or social experience. We can refer the common sense as market dynamics because market keeps changing through time. However it shares the potential problems. Because, experience is limited by what our minds can perceive about the way the world works from the data we receives. Thus this limitation can mislead us, especially in situation of complexity. (bấm slide)
Many managers make mistakes by looking and depending on their experience, while ignoring the current situation or environment. But in a constantly changing business environment, common sense must reflect what's current, which are new things, not common sense.
We can conclude that common sense do well when addressing "common" every day risks but not necessarily so when dealing with complex problems.
Common sense reflects the past and is comfortable and familiar. People have come to know and accept over a time
What characteristics distinguish ‘good’ decisions from ‘bad’ decisions in risk management?
We can say it is difficult in risk management to say which decisions is good or bad. I’ll show 2 examples to explain why it is hard to distinguish them. (bấm slide)
First is example that under condition of uncertainty:
Case 1 : A risk manager didn’t buy the insurance policy thus his firm saves lots of money
Case 2 : A risk manager did buy the insurance policy. Then an accident happens such as fire or storm causing damage to the factory. The firm recover the loss through the policy
We cannot say which decision is good or bad based solely on the outcome. None of the manager knows what the future will be. So in order to make decisions, we must use the information available to us.(bấm slide)
Second example is under condition of certainty
Let say you and me have a bet of $50 by flipping a coin. I call heads but the outcome is tail. So I lost the bet. But did I make a bad decision?
I do know that there is 50% of winning and 50% of losing therefore I took the bet. Therefore, to me the decision is a good one. It is just bad luck causing me to lose.
In conclusion, We can only judge risk management decision that using information available. Then we now can use the outcome of decisions to see how good or bad it is.