Research Methodoloy on Dhl Service
Logistics 2050 A Scenario Study
DELIVERING TOMORROW
Logistics 2050 A Scenario Study
PUBLISHER Deutsche Post AG, Headquarters represented by Dr. Christof E. Ehrhart, Executive Vice President Corporate Communications 53250 Bonn, Germany PROJECT DIRECTOR Dr. Jan Dietrich Müller, Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AG PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND EDITORIAL OFFICE Johannes Oppolzer, Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AG ART DIRECTION Kai Kullen SCENARIO PROCESS AND REALIZATION Z_punkt The Foresight Company, Cologne
COVER IMAGE Adrian Frutiger EDITORIAL SUPPORT Keir Bonine, Communication Resources bvba TRANSLATION Anke Bryson PRINT COORDINATION Manfred T. Rehberg, Williams Lea GmbH 1. Edition February 2012 © Deutsche Post AG, Bonn, Germany ISBN 978-3-920269-54-2
“To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect.” Oscar Wilde, 1854 – 1900 Irish poet, novelist, and playwright
Contents
Impressions Introduction Executive Summary 1 Inception On Looking into the Futures by Professor James Allen Dator Winning in an Uncertain Future Through Scenario Planning by Peter Schwartz 2 Imagination The Project The Futures Scenario 1: Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse Scenario 2: Mega-efficiency in Megacities Scenario 3: Customized Lifestyles Scenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism Scenario 5: Global Resilience – Local Adaptation The Methodology: Taking a Closer Look The Experts
8 10 12 22 22
27
34 34 36 36 50 66 80 92 104 112
3 ssues I The Future of Secure Communications in the Age of the Internet by Jürgen Gerdes Beyond Double-Digit Growth: Perspectives for Sustained Prosperity in Asia by Jerry Hsu Why I Believe in a Bright Future for Africa by Amadou Diallo Vulnerability and Security in the 21st Century by Professor Herfried Münkler The Future Belongs to Renewable Energies Interview with Professor Klaus Töpfer
114
114
120
127
132
138
4 Implications Mapping a
DELIVERING TOMORROW
Logistics 2050 A Scenario Study
PUBLISHER Deutsche Post AG, Headquarters represented by Dr. Christof E. Ehrhart, Executive Vice President Corporate Communications 53250 Bonn, Germany PROJECT DIRECTOR Dr. Jan Dietrich Müller, Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AG PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND EDITORIAL OFFICE Johannes Oppolzer, Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AG ART DIRECTION Kai Kullen SCENARIO PROCESS AND REALIZATION Z_punkt The Foresight Company, Cologne
COVER IMAGE Adrian Frutiger EDITORIAL SUPPORT Keir Bonine, Communication Resources bvba TRANSLATION Anke Bryson PRINT COORDINATION Manfred T. Rehberg, Williams Lea GmbH 1. Edition February 2012 © Deutsche Post AG, Bonn, Germany ISBN 978-3-920269-54-2
“To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect.” Oscar Wilde, 1854 – 1900 Irish poet, novelist, and playwright
Contents
Impressions Introduction Executive Summary 1 Inception On Looking into the Futures by Professor James Allen Dator Winning in an Uncertain Future Through Scenario Planning by Peter Schwartz 2 Imagination The Project The Futures Scenario 1: Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse Scenario 2: Mega-efficiency in Megacities Scenario 3: Customized Lifestyles Scenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism Scenario 5: Global Resilience – Local Adaptation The Methodology: Taking a Closer Look The Experts
8 10 12 22 22
27
34 34 36 36 50 66 80 92 104 112
3 ssues I The Future of Secure Communications in the Age of the Internet by Jürgen Gerdes Beyond Double-Digit Growth: Perspectives for Sustained Prosperity in Asia by Jerry Hsu Why I Believe in a Bright Future for Africa by Amadou Diallo Vulnerability and Security in the 21st Century by Professor Herfried Münkler The Future Belongs to Renewable Energies Interview with Professor Klaus Töpfer
114
114
120
127
132
138
4 Implications Mapping a