Sales Forecast in a Foundry Fab- a Linear Time Series Approach
|Sales Forecast in a Foundry Fab- A linear time series approach |
|D9516914/羅振宇 |
1. Introduction
Sales forecasting plays a crucial corporate role because it provides the basis for company-strategic decisions, including capacity preparation, inventory level, and capital expenditure budgets. Because of the uncertainty of sales forecasting errors, companies must increase costs to satisfy customer requirements and prepare a higher inventory level or capacity to avoid sales loss. Hence, sales forecasting accuracy has a considerable influence on company cost reduction.
In a foundry fab, the accuracy of sales forecasting is vital because the fab manufacturing cycle time is long, the lead time for capacity expansion requires considerable time and cost, and the capital investment is large. Therefore, sales forecasting is one of the most important jobs in a foundry fab.
Because of the importance of sales forecasting, it is crucial to establish a proper forecasting procedure to meet the accuracy requirement in a fab foundry. Hong-Sen [3] proposed that quantitative sales forecasting involves four stages: finding the main affecting factors, using the observational values of these factors within a certain period as the input of a certain regression model, determining the model parameters and structure by training, and providing forecasting results by extrapolation based on the trained model. Based on these four stages, the necessary cycles of sales forecasting include finding the affecting factors, choosing appropriate models, estimating the parameters of models with adequate methods, and evaluating the models. These four cycles are introduced in the following sections.
As the foundry fab industry is highly technological, Prior studies have
|D9516914/羅振宇 |
1. Introduction
Sales forecasting plays a crucial corporate role because it provides the basis for company-strategic decisions, including capacity preparation, inventory level, and capital expenditure budgets. Because of the uncertainty of sales forecasting errors, companies must increase costs to satisfy customer requirements and prepare a higher inventory level or capacity to avoid sales loss. Hence, sales forecasting accuracy has a considerable influence on company cost reduction.
In a foundry fab, the accuracy of sales forecasting is vital because the fab manufacturing cycle time is long, the lead time for capacity expansion requires considerable time and cost, and the capital investment is large. Therefore, sales forecasting is one of the most important jobs in a foundry fab.
Because of the importance of sales forecasting, it is crucial to establish a proper forecasting procedure to meet the accuracy requirement in a fab foundry. Hong-Sen [3] proposed that quantitative sales forecasting involves four stages: finding the main affecting factors, using the observational values of these factors within a certain period as the input of a certain regression model, determining the model parameters and structure by training, and providing forecasting results by extrapolation based on the trained model. Based on these four stages, the necessary cycles of sales forecasting include finding the affecting factors, choosing appropriate models, estimating the parameters of models with adequate methods, and evaluating the models. These four cycles are introduced in the following sections.
As the foundry fab industry is highly technological, Prior studies have