Solved 2
• 3. „Expect the Unexpected.“David Axson
• 4. Forecasting a critical business process in turbulent times.
• 5. What is a forecast? Forward Looking Fact-based Flexible Focused on Risks & Opportunities
• 6. „The end result ... is not an accurate picture of tomorrow, but better decisions about the future.“Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View
• 7. Good forecasting practices create value Career Perform n ance Reputatio
• 8. The traditional approach... J F M A M J J A S O N D
• 9. The traditional template
• 10. Static forecasts do not provide the necessary visibility in turbulent times.
• 11. It shows...
• 12. Rolling Forecasts. An effective approach.© 2009 IBM Corporation
• 13. What is a Rolling forecast J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Q1 Forecast Traditional Q2 forecast Q3 Q1 Forecast Rolling forecast
• 14. Why are rolling forecasts attractive? Increased visibility Consistent time horizon Less reliance on budget Solid baseline for new plans
• 15. Rolling Forecasts speed up the budgeting process Source: The Hackett Group, 2008
• 16. Not only time is saved. Satisfaction increases. Source: The Hackett Group, 2008
• 17. Some elements of a successful forecast Time Horizon & Process Update Frequency Management Agile Models
• 18. Time Horizon & Process Update Frequency Management Agile Models
• 19. Rolling Forecast = 12 month quartely? No. It depends on your business!
• 20. Match the time horizon to the rhythm of your business Short cycles Long cycles Industry Consumer electronics Oil exploration Retailing Pharma development Investment banking Infrastructure investment Plant construction Function Advertising Cash flow Infrastructure investment Overtime Research & development
• 21. „Best practice companies move towards more frequent & event-driven updates.“
• 22. Time Horizon & Process Update Frequency Management Agile Models
• 23. Remember this template?
• 24.
• 4. Forecasting a critical business process in turbulent times.
• 5. What is a forecast? Forward Looking Fact-based Flexible Focused on Risks & Opportunities
• 6. „The end result ... is not an accurate picture of tomorrow, but better decisions about the future.“Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View
• 7. Good forecasting practices create value Career Perform n ance Reputatio
• 8. The traditional approach... J F M A M J J A S O N D
• 9. The traditional template
• 10. Static forecasts do not provide the necessary visibility in turbulent times.
• 11. It shows...
• 12. Rolling Forecasts. An effective approach.© 2009 IBM Corporation
• 13. What is a Rolling forecast J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Q1 Forecast Traditional Q2 forecast Q3 Q1 Forecast Rolling forecast
• 14. Why are rolling forecasts attractive? Increased visibility Consistent time horizon Less reliance on budget Solid baseline for new plans
• 15. Rolling Forecasts speed up the budgeting process Source: The Hackett Group, 2008
• 16. Not only time is saved. Satisfaction increases. Source: The Hackett Group, 2008
• 17. Some elements of a successful forecast Time Horizon & Process Update Frequency Management Agile Models
• 18. Time Horizon & Process Update Frequency Management Agile Models
• 19. Rolling Forecast = 12 month quartely? No. It depends on your business!
• 20. Match the time horizon to the rhythm of your business Short cycles Long cycles Industry Consumer electronics Oil exploration Retailing Pharma development Investment banking Infrastructure investment Plant construction Function Advertising Cash flow Infrastructure investment Overtime Research & development
• 21. „Best practice companies move towards more frequent & event-driven updates.“
• 22. Time Horizon & Process Update Frequency Management Agile Models
• 23. Remember this template?
• 24.