Strategic Decision Making in Crisis Situations
Case Exercise: Strategic Decision-Making in Crisis Situations
Thirteen Days’ is a 2000 docudrama about the Cuba Missile Crisis of 1962. Based on the narration of the film, we think both the political model and the bounded rationality model are reflected in the strategic decision making (SDM) process of the US authorities.
On one hand, the political model suggests that the SDM process is driven by conflicts among different groups of people engaged in the decision process. As evidence, from the beginning we can identify three “coalitions”: President Kennedy, his brother Robert and his advisor Kenny O’Donnell on one side, striving to evaluate more alternatives and come to a balanced decision, preferably avoiding the use of force; on another side the military officers want to go with a show of strength and press for an immediate air strike against the sites in Cuba; finally, a miscellaneous group of politicians, strategists, diplomats and so forth with various opinions, advice and plans.
As postulated by the political model, the groups share a common goal, namely the defence of the country, but they also hold different opinions, preferences and perspectives, which is why conflicts arise among them.
Finally, the political model suggests that power matters in the SDM process: as we observed in the movie, the ultimate decision rests with the President, “the highest authority”.
On the other hand, all groups and individuals in the committee have bounded rationality.
First, all the members of the committee agree on the final aim, namely to neutralize the missile’s threat. However, options and alternatives on how to proceed are not clear and have to be found: more information is needed, but this is difficult due to cognitive limitations, time pressure, environmental uncertainty and so forth (e.g. generals fail to take into account the potential risk of counterattack and of deterioration of US reputation; army acts upon standard
Thirteen Days’ is a 2000 docudrama about the Cuba Missile Crisis of 1962. Based on the narration of the film, we think both the political model and the bounded rationality model are reflected in the strategic decision making (SDM) process of the US authorities.
On one hand, the political model suggests that the SDM process is driven by conflicts among different groups of people engaged in the decision process. As evidence, from the beginning we can identify three “coalitions”: President Kennedy, his brother Robert and his advisor Kenny O’Donnell on one side, striving to evaluate more alternatives and come to a balanced decision, preferably avoiding the use of force; on another side the military officers want to go with a show of strength and press for an immediate air strike against the sites in Cuba; finally, a miscellaneous group of politicians, strategists, diplomats and so forth with various opinions, advice and plans.
As postulated by the political model, the groups share a common goal, namely the defence of the country, but they also hold different opinions, preferences and perspectives, which is why conflicts arise among them.
Finally, the political model suggests that power matters in the SDM process: as we observed in the movie, the ultimate decision rests with the President, “the highest authority”.
On the other hand, all groups and individuals in the committee have bounded rationality.
First, all the members of the committee agree on the final aim, namely to neutralize the missile’s threat. However, options and alternatives on how to proceed are not clear and have to be found: more information is needed, but this is difficult due to cognitive limitations, time pressure, environmental uncertainty and so forth (e.g. generals fail to take into account the potential risk of counterattack and of deterioration of US reputation; army acts upon standard
References: Allison, G. & Zelikow, P. (1999). Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Longman, second edition Eisenhardt, K.M. & Zbaracki, M.J. (1992). Strategic decision making. Strategic Management Journal, 13 (Winter Special Issue): 17-37. ‘Thirteen Days’ (2000), by R. Donaldson, with K. Costner and B. Greenwood.