Subprime Meltdown: American Housing and Global Financial Turmoil
Subprime Meltdown: American Housing and Global Financial Turmoil In early 2008, policy-makers in the United States needed to deal with the frightening after-effects of what had appeared to be a glorious housing boom. The most immediate problem was a wave of foreclosures, which a Senate report predicted could reach 2 million by the end of 2009. Lawmakers sought to relieve the resulting pain and to preserve the longstanding dream of raising the US homeownership rate. Amidst a sea of lawsuits and recrimination, they needed to figure out where the US system for financing home purchases had gone wrong and how it could be fixed. To do this, lawmakers needed to understand what had happened, particularly because housing had until then seemed like such a bright spot in the US economy.
The US housing “bubble” in the early 21st century In his 2001 letter to shareholders, Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines wrote, “Housing is a safe, leveraged investment – the only leveraged investment available to most families – and it is one of the best returning investment to make. Home will continue to appreciate in value. Home values are expected to rise even faster in this decade than in the 1990’s.” His optimism was due in part to the importance Americans attributed to owning a home. The importance was reflected in Fannie Mae’s motto, which was “Our Business in the American Dream.” Raines was not alone in touting the advantages of housing as an investment. While house prices in particular region had suffered temporary declines at various points, average housing prices across the United States had risen fairly steadily since at least 1975 (see Exhibit 1). This trend accelerated in 1996, and reached about 12 percent per annum in late 2005 and early 2006. Many observers felt that this rise in prices was due in part to the Federal Reserve’s policy of maintaining low interest rates after the 2001 recession. In the period from 1980 to 2001, the Federal Funds rate (an overnight interest
The US housing “bubble” in the early 21st century In his 2001 letter to shareholders, Fannie Mae CEO Franklin Raines wrote, “Housing is a safe, leveraged investment – the only leveraged investment available to most families – and it is one of the best returning investment to make. Home will continue to appreciate in value. Home values are expected to rise even faster in this decade than in the 1990’s.” His optimism was due in part to the importance Americans attributed to owning a home. The importance was reflected in Fannie Mae’s motto, which was “Our Business in the American Dream.” Raines was not alone in touting the advantages of housing as an investment. While house prices in particular region had suffered temporary declines at various points, average housing prices across the United States had risen fairly steadily since at least 1975 (see Exhibit 1). This trend accelerated in 1996, and reached about 12 percent per annum in late 2005 and early 2006. Many observers felt that this rise in prices was due in part to the Federal Reserve’s policy of maintaining low interest rates after the 2001 recession. In the period from 1980 to 2001, the Federal Funds rate (an overnight interest