Summary of “the Hidden Traps in Decision Making”
Yue Li
MKTG544
Jaebeom Suh
17/09/2012
Summary of “The hidden traps in decision making” This article is written by John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa in 1998. The article talks about many manager were cheated by the presentational right decision and they already fall into the traps. Many Executives likely made the right decision, in fact this is sensory misperception. There are various traps that discussed in article: the anchoring trap, the status-quo trap, the sunk-cost trap, the confirming evidence trap, the framing trap, and the estimating and forecasting traps. A decision maker who make a decision use the historical data, based on past trend and stereotype is called anchoring trap. There are five ways can let you avoid anchor influence. Using the different perspective to view a problem. Thinking about the problem on your own before discussing with others. Open mind, absorbing the information from various ways. Be particularly wary of anchors in negotiation. The status-quo trap talks about managers are accustomed to think that their own decisions are rational and objective, in fact, even if those look objective and rational decision-making is also affected by the psychological tendency. The presence of the trap from the depths of our hearts a desire for self-protection, protection from trauma instinct reaction. Undermine the existing presence of innovative means to take action, and the actions you have to take responsibility, face defeat and reprehensible risk, and therefore need to bear the psychological burden. Five ways to aviod it. To know your goal how it served by status quo. Don’t make your status quo become your alternative. Ask yourself you would choose the instead of status quo alternative, in fact, it weren’t the statue quo. Sunk-cost trap which means People always tend to make a new
MKTG544
Jaebeom Suh
17/09/2012
Summary of “The hidden traps in decision making” This article is written by John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa in 1998. The article talks about many manager were cheated by the presentational right decision and they already fall into the traps. Many Executives likely made the right decision, in fact this is sensory misperception. There are various traps that discussed in article: the anchoring trap, the status-quo trap, the sunk-cost trap, the confirming evidence trap, the framing trap, and the estimating and forecasting traps. A decision maker who make a decision use the historical data, based on past trend and stereotype is called anchoring trap. There are five ways can let you avoid anchor influence. Using the different perspective to view a problem. Thinking about the problem on your own before discussing with others. Open mind, absorbing the information from various ways. Be particularly wary of anchors in negotiation. The status-quo trap talks about managers are accustomed to think that their own decisions are rational and objective, in fact, even if those look objective and rational decision-making is also affected by the psychological tendency. The presence of the trap from the depths of our hearts a desire for self-protection, protection from trauma instinct reaction. Undermine the existing presence of innovative means to take action, and the actions you have to take responsibility, face defeat and reprehensible risk, and therefore need to bear the psychological burden. Five ways to aviod it. To know your goal how it served by status quo. Don’t make your status quo become your alternative. Ask yourself you would choose the instead of status quo alternative, in fact, it weren’t the statue quo. Sunk-cost trap which means People always tend to make a new