Supply Chain Management and Time Series Methods
Executive summary 1. Introduction 2. Background 3.1 Costco history (departments, countries, organization, structure of Costco) 3.2 Why enter Australia? 3.3 Cash & Carry 3.4 Retail logistics (pallets in store) 3.5 Wholesale & retail 3. Discussion 4.6 Product (Quyen) * Target customers: for women at big events such as: Mother Day n Christmas. * Peak season at Oz – cold weather from May until Xmas. * Another high season on Valentine Day in Feb. 4.7 Diagram (Quyen) GANTT chart 4.8 Forecast (Quyen) 4.9.1 Reason –
Supply chain management decisions are based on forecasts that define which product will be required, in what amount, and when they will be needed. The demand forecast becomes the basis for companies to plan their internal operations and to cooperate among each other to meet market demand.
All forecasts deal with four major variables that combine to determine what the market conditions are likely to be: * Demand * Supply * Product characteristics * Competition environment
4.9.2 How –simulation method
There are many ways to create a forecast for a certain goods that a planner can use just one or combine many methods together. According to Chopra and Meindl define these methods as follows: 1. Qualitative methods
Rely upon a person’s intuition or subjective opinions about a market. These methods are most appropriate when there is not much historical data to work with. 2. Causal methods assume that demand is strongly related to a particular cause, such as environmental or market factors. 3. Time series methods are based on the assumption that historical patterns of demand are a good indicator of future demand, and that over a period of time, demand can be charter in three different ways: as an underlying trend (flat, up , or down), as a circle (daily, weekly, seasonally , and so on), and as irregular
Supply chain management decisions are based on forecasts that define which product will be required, in what amount, and when they will be needed. The demand forecast becomes the basis for companies to plan their internal operations and to cooperate among each other to meet market demand.
All forecasts deal with four major variables that combine to determine what the market conditions are likely to be: * Demand * Supply * Product characteristics * Competition environment
4.9.2 How –simulation method
There are many ways to create a forecast for a certain goods that a planner can use just one or combine many methods together. According to Chopra and Meindl define these methods as follows: 1. Qualitative methods
Rely upon a person’s intuition or subjective opinions about a market. These methods are most appropriate when there is not much historical data to work with. 2. Causal methods assume that demand is strongly related to a particular cause, such as environmental or market factors. 3. Time series methods are based on the assumption that historical patterns of demand are a good indicator of future demand, and that over a period of time, demand can be charter in three different ways: as an underlying trend (flat, up , or down), as a circle (daily, weekly, seasonally , and so on), and as irregular
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