Techniques of Forecasting
An Assignment
On
Forecasting
Submitted To
Dr. Tophan Patra
Submitted By
Kumail Murtaza
MBA AVM SEM III
R250211021
College of Management and Economic Studies (CMES)
University of Petroleum and Energy Studies
Dehradun, India
Exponential Smoothing
Class Values
Ft+1 = α.Xt + (1- α).Ft ----------------------------------- Eqn 1 Ft+1----- Forecasted Value of the next period “t+1” α------- Smoothing Factor/Coefficient Xt------- Actual Value of the current period “t” Ft------- Forecasted Value of the current period “t”
Table 1 α=0.2 Months | Actual Values | Forecasted Values | Forecast Error | Jan | 66.1 | - | - | Feb | 66.1 | 66.1 | 0 | Mar | 66.4 | 66.1 | 0.3 | Apr | 64.3 | 66.16 | -1.86 | May | 63.2 | 65.788 | -2.588 | Jun | 61.6 | 65.2704 | -3.6704 | Jul | 59.3 | 64.53632 | -5.23632 | Aug | 58.1 | 63.489056 | -5.389056 | Sep | 58.9 | 62.4112448 | -3.5112448 | Oct | 60.9 | 61.70899584 | -0.80899584 | Nov | 60.7 | 61.54719667 | -0.847196672 | Dec | 59.4 | 61.37775734 | -1.977757338 |
Sample Calculation for the Month of May at α=0.2, t=April α = 0.2 Xt = 64.3 Ft = 66.16
Substituting these values in Eqn 1,
Ft+1 = α.Xt + (1- α).Ft
Ft+1 = (0.2 * 64.3) + (1 - 0.2) * 66.16
Ft+1 = 65.788
Forecast Error = Actual Value – Forecasted Value
Forecast Error = 63.2 - 65.788
Forecast Error = -2.588
Table 2 α=0.5 Months | Actual Values | Forecasted Values | Forecast Error | Jan | 66.1 | - | - | Feb | 66.1 | 66.1 | 0 | Mar | 66.4 | 66.1 | 0.3 | Apr | 64.3 | 66.25 | -1.95 | May | 63.2 | 65.275 | -2.075 | Jun | 61.6 | 64.2375 | -2.6375 | Jul | 59.3 | 62.91875 | -3.61875 | Aug | 58.1 | 61.109375 | -3.009375 | Sep | 58.9 | 59.6046875 | -0.7046875 | Oct | 60.9 | 59.25234375 | 1.64765625 | Nov | 60.7 | 60.07617188 | 0.623828125 | Dec | 59.4 | 60.38808594 | -0.988085938 |
Sample Calculation for the Month of September at α=0.5, t=August α = 0.5
On
Forecasting
Submitted To
Dr. Tophan Patra
Submitted By
Kumail Murtaza
MBA AVM SEM III
R250211021
College of Management and Economic Studies (CMES)
University of Petroleum and Energy Studies
Dehradun, India
Exponential Smoothing
Class Values
Ft+1 = α.Xt + (1- α).Ft ----------------------------------- Eqn 1 Ft+1----- Forecasted Value of the next period “t+1” α------- Smoothing Factor/Coefficient Xt------- Actual Value of the current period “t” Ft------- Forecasted Value of the current period “t”
Table 1 α=0.2 Months | Actual Values | Forecasted Values | Forecast Error | Jan | 66.1 | - | - | Feb | 66.1 | 66.1 | 0 | Mar | 66.4 | 66.1 | 0.3 | Apr | 64.3 | 66.16 | -1.86 | May | 63.2 | 65.788 | -2.588 | Jun | 61.6 | 65.2704 | -3.6704 | Jul | 59.3 | 64.53632 | -5.23632 | Aug | 58.1 | 63.489056 | -5.389056 | Sep | 58.9 | 62.4112448 | -3.5112448 | Oct | 60.9 | 61.70899584 | -0.80899584 | Nov | 60.7 | 61.54719667 | -0.847196672 | Dec | 59.4 | 61.37775734 | -1.977757338 |
Sample Calculation for the Month of May at α=0.2, t=April α = 0.2 Xt = 64.3 Ft = 66.16
Substituting these values in Eqn 1,
Ft+1 = α.Xt + (1- α).Ft
Ft+1 = (0.2 * 64.3) + (1 - 0.2) * 66.16
Ft+1 = 65.788
Forecast Error = Actual Value – Forecasted Value
Forecast Error = 63.2 - 65.788
Forecast Error = -2.588
Table 2 α=0.5 Months | Actual Values | Forecasted Values | Forecast Error | Jan | 66.1 | - | - | Feb | 66.1 | 66.1 | 0 | Mar | 66.4 | 66.1 | 0.3 | Apr | 64.3 | 66.25 | -1.95 | May | 63.2 | 65.275 | -2.075 | Jun | 61.6 | 64.2375 | -2.6375 | Jul | 59.3 | 62.91875 | -3.61875 | Aug | 58.1 | 61.109375 | -3.009375 | Sep | 58.9 | 59.6046875 | -0.7046875 | Oct | 60.9 | 59.25234375 | 1.64765625 | Nov | 60.7 | 60.07617188 | 0.623828125 | Dec | 59.4 | 60.38808594 | -0.988085938 |
Sample Calculation for the Month of September at α=0.5, t=August α = 0.5