Directions:
In this project you will be using the States Data file that is found in Doc Sharing under the Instructor-Graded Projects:
Steps for accessing the States Data file:
1. Open your Excel with PhStat2
2. Click File—Open
3. Select the States Data file
Not all questions require the use of technology or the States Date file.
You may insert your answers, including any charts, graphs, or output, on this document.
Be sure to put your name on this document and save it to your computer.
1. Even though independent gasoline stations have been having a difficult time, Susan Solomon has been thinking about starting her own independent gas station. Susan’s problem is to decide how large her station should be. The annual returns will depend on both the size of the station and a number of marketing factors related to oil industry and demand for gasoline. After careful analysis, Susan developed the following table:
Size of Gasoline Station
Good Market ($)
Fair Market ($)
Poor Market ($)
Small
$70,000
$30,000
-$30,000
Medium
$110,000
$50,000
-$40,000
Large
$170,000
$70,000
-$50,000
1. Develop a decision table for this decision.
Alternative
Favorable Market
Unfavorable Market
Small
$70,000
-$30,000
Medium
$110,000
-$40,000
Large
$170,000
-$50,000
Do nothing
0
0
2. What is the Maximax decision? 170,000
3. What is the Maximin decision? 50000
4. What is the criterion of realism decision? Use α = 0.6. to build a large station 72,000
5. Develop an Opportunity Loss Table
Scenario 1
Scenario 2 Expected
Maximum
Probability
0
0
Decision 1
100000
30000 0
100000
Decision 2
60000
40000 0
60000
Decision 3
0
50000 0
50000
Decision 4
170000
0 0
170000
Minimum
0
50000
6. What is the Minimax Regret Decision?
50000
2. Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Sunshine Garden Supply are shown in the following table.
Year
Demand for Fertilizer (1,000s of Bags)
1
4
2
7
3
5
4
5
5
10
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
11
10