THE INFLUENCIAL NATURE OF POLLS ON PUBLIC OPINION
Abstract:
Over the past two decades the number of polls published as part of election coverage has increased immensely. In fact, pollsters have generated over five times the amount of polls in the seven-month period leading to the 2000 election than in the same time frame in 1980 (Steinhorn 2000). When tracking polls are included, the media publishes at least seven polls a week leading up to national elections. As polls’ regarding the public’s voting intention receives more media coverage, experts have become concerned with their potentially detrimental effects on democracy. Many have been troubled with the development of “horse-race journalism”, with attention turning to the “political game” instead of any significant dialogue of ideas, issues or plans. (Patterson 1994) This paper functions under one assumption: that polls truly have substance – that is, that information contained in political poll outcomes actually affect the voter and the decisions they make in the booth. This paper considers the manner in which polls influence voting behavior and evaluates the psychological preconditions necessary for said influence.
Introduction:
In highly competitive electoral campaigns, the fluctuations of the lead one candidate holds over the other are almost daily occurrences. In a country where our biggest heroes are often seen on the competitive playing fields, campaigns are often lumped into something of a “race”. During these elections, the competitiveness of the race is frequently detailed by a host of polls used by mass media outlets. “Candidates with sufficient funds will often hire pollsters who will ‘track’ a competitive campaign on a nearly daily basis – looking to discern changes in voter sentiment as a result of issues raised in the campaign itself as well as issues that suddenly appear on the political/government horizon.” (Chambless 2011) This brings an array of important questions that need answering:
• In tight electoral campaigns, does the vast
Over the past two decades the number of polls published as part of election coverage has increased immensely. In fact, pollsters have generated over five times the amount of polls in the seven-month period leading to the 2000 election than in the same time frame in 1980 (Steinhorn 2000). When tracking polls are included, the media publishes at least seven polls a week leading up to national elections. As polls’ regarding the public’s voting intention receives more media coverage, experts have become concerned with their potentially detrimental effects on democracy. Many have been troubled with the development of “horse-race journalism”, with attention turning to the “political game” instead of any significant dialogue of ideas, issues or plans. (Patterson 1994) This paper functions under one assumption: that polls truly have substance – that is, that information contained in political poll outcomes actually affect the voter and the decisions they make in the booth. This paper considers the manner in which polls influence voting behavior and evaluates the psychological preconditions necessary for said influence.
Introduction:
In highly competitive electoral campaigns, the fluctuations of the lead one candidate holds over the other are almost daily occurrences. In a country where our biggest heroes are often seen on the competitive playing fields, campaigns are often lumped into something of a “race”. During these elections, the competitiveness of the race is frequently detailed by a host of polls used by mass media outlets. “Candidates with sufficient funds will often hire pollsters who will ‘track’ a competitive campaign on a nearly daily basis – looking to discern changes in voter sentiment as a result of issues raised in the campaign itself as well as issues that suddenly appear on the political/government horizon.” (Chambless 2011) This brings an array of important questions that need answering:
• In tight electoral campaigns, does the vast