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The Rise and Fall of Great Powers

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The Rise and Fall of Great Powers
The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers
- Economic change and Military conflict from 1500 to 2000
By Paul Kennedy
Fontana Press, London, 1989.

This fascinating book by Paul Kennedy, a professor of history at Yale University, is about the changing balance of power in the past 500 years. The book explains the interaction between economics & strategy and relates military conflicts to economic progress. As the author puts it, “Wealth is usually needed to underpin military power and military power is usually needed to acquire and protect wealth.” But if too much money is diverted towards military expenditures or if the state over extends itself by too many conquests, the results will not be satisfactory. There is a very significant correlation over the longer term between productive and revenue-raising capacities and military strength. Another point which the author emphasizes is that wealth and power are always relative. Also, a nation’s relative economic and military power may not rise and fall in parallel. There is a noticeable lag between the trajectory of a state’s relative economic strength and the trajectory of its military/territorial influence. According to the author, “Great powers in relative decline instinctively respond by spending more on security and thereby divert potential resources from investment and compound their long-term dilemma.”

The Rise of the Western World

In 1500, few could have predicted the tremendous economic progress the western world would make. Compared with other great centres of cultural and economic activity, Europe’s relative weaknesses were more apparent than its strengths. Europe had no significant advantages in culture, mathematics, engineering/navigational technologies, compared with other great Asian civilizations. Ming China, the Ottoman empire, the Moghuls, Russia and Japan all looked equally well placed compared to Europe. But Europe went ahead due to a combination of circumstances. There was political

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