Time series analysis
EXAMINATION PAPER
(DUE ON DECEMBER 11, 2013) You are expected to write a small individual paper as an examination requirement. The research paper is your individual forecasting project with actual economic and business data. The maximum size of the paper is 15 A4 pages. Before choosing the topic for your forecasting project, think carefully what your interests are, and what kind of information you would like to explore. Once you understand your interests, search for the relevant data AND TAKE A MODEL WHICH IS SUITABLE FOR THE DATA, IT HAS TO FIT THE DATA AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. A huge amount of data of all sorts are available from the World Wide Web. If you are not sure where to look for the data, the Resources for Economists page is a fine place to start (http://rfe.org).
Your forecasting project should contain the following parts:
1. Title page. Give the title to your project, write your name, CPR and any other relevant information.
2. Introduction. In this part you thoroughly motivate your interest in the time series you are about to analyze. You should argue why it is of interest and importance to model your data series. You also briefly report what you do in your project and what results and conclusions you reach.
3. Data. In this section you describe where and how you got the data. Carefully describe all data characteristics, length of your time series, and frequency. Make a graph of your data series; you could also make a table with summary statistics of the data: its mean and standard deviation. This section should be written so clearly that after reading it anyone can go to the same data source (if it is publicly available), download the data and construct exactly the same graph and summary statistics of the data.
4. Model. In this section, based on the graph and your intuition, suggest a model that will help explaining the data series the best. You will have to justify why you picked a particular model. Write down your model and explain
(DUE ON DECEMBER 11, 2013) You are expected to write a small individual paper as an examination requirement. The research paper is your individual forecasting project with actual economic and business data. The maximum size of the paper is 15 A4 pages. Before choosing the topic for your forecasting project, think carefully what your interests are, and what kind of information you would like to explore. Once you understand your interests, search for the relevant data AND TAKE A MODEL WHICH IS SUITABLE FOR THE DATA, IT HAS TO FIT THE DATA AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. A huge amount of data of all sorts are available from the World Wide Web. If you are not sure where to look for the data, the Resources for Economists page is a fine place to start (http://rfe.org).
Your forecasting project should contain the following parts:
1. Title page. Give the title to your project, write your name, CPR and any other relevant information.
2. Introduction. In this part you thoroughly motivate your interest in the time series you are about to analyze. You should argue why it is of interest and importance to model your data series. You also briefly report what you do in your project and what results and conclusions you reach.
3. Data. In this section you describe where and how you got the data. Carefully describe all data characteristics, length of your time series, and frequency. Make a graph of your data series; you could also make a table with summary statistics of the data: its mean and standard deviation. This section should be written so clearly that after reading it anyone can go to the same data source (if it is publicly available), download the data and construct exactly the same graph and summary statistics of the data.
4. Model. In this section, based on the graph and your intuition, suggest a model that will help explaining the data series the best. You will have to justify why you picked a particular model. Write down your model and explain
References: Here you provide a list of any source of information or literature that you used in writing your paper. For example, you may cite newspapers or magazines or scientific articles in the motivating introduction, list them here. If you took the data from the official published source, mention it in the Data and list it here. SEARCH FOR DATA DATA SECTION: Different topics (http://rfe.org).