Toronto Raptors Case Study
The Toronto Raptors (50-31) begin their march back to the Eastern Conference Finals against the Milwaukee Bucks (42-39). The Raptors are the more talented team top- to-bottom and boast a much stronger ORTG and DRTG at 6th and 8th in the league respectively. Comparatively, the Bucks are only 16th in ORTG and 18th in DRTG. However, the Bucks may have the best player in the series, the “Greek Freak” Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis is in the midst of a breakout season with "Freakish" averages of 22.9 PPG, 8 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1 SPG and 1.9 BPG. Alternatively, the Raptors possess in my opinion the best point guard in the eastern conference Kyle Lowry. Lowry was enjoying a career-best season, averaging 22 PPG 5 RPG 7 APG 2 SPG and a scorching hot 42% from
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3 on 8 attempts per game. Unfortunately, Lowry had a wrist injury that kept him out of 21 games before returning last Wednesday against the Pistons. The Raptors are coming into the playoffs hot with a 17-7 record since the all-star break including having the 4th best DRTG in that time. To the Bucks credit, they are playing almost as well the Raptors with a 17-10 record post all-star break. While also being no slouches on defense either ranking 10th in DRTG since the all-star break. Ultimately, the Raptors should win this series as they are much more experienced and the flat-out better team, as evidenced by their Eastern Conference-leading 4.2 NET RTG.
X-Factors: The Role Players Who Could Have A Major Impact
Raptors: PF Patrick Patterson 10 PER .540 TS% .098 WS/48 BPM 0.8 VORP 1.1
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While Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan steal most of the headlines for the Raptors (and rightfully so). Patrick Patterson has been arguably the Raptors 3rd best player for most of this season. Patterson's box score stats look pretty underwhelming this year with averages of only 7 PPG 4.5 RPG and 1.2 APG on a mediocre 54 TS%. Yet, Patterson has an extremely positive impact for the Raptors this season. He is part of 4 of the Raptors top 5 lineups by NET RTG that have played at least 20 minutes together. Furthermore, Patterson has an overall NET RTG of 10.9 this season, which ranks first among Raptors rotation players. Patterson’s 3 point shooting is a key reason for this because his spacing opens up lanes for drive heavy guards like Lowry and Derozan. On the season Patterson is shooting 37% from 3 (38.3% from 3 since the ASB). For the Raptors to win this series it is essential that Patterson hits his open 3 point shots. In wins, Patterson is shooting 40% from 3 and in losses just 29% from 3. What could bode well for Patterson and the Raptors is that in the 4 games against the bucks this season he is shooting a blistering .780 TS% and 53% from 3. If Patterson converts on his open shots while playing solid defense, it could be an easy path to the second round for the Raptors.
Bucks: G/F Khris Middleton 15.1 PER .570 TS% .086 WS/48 BPM -0.5 VORP 0.3
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When it was announced that Khris Middleton would be out with a torn hamstring, many questioned what kind of impact the guard would have for the Bucks this year. Middleton has put any concerns about his play to rest and has come back strong this season. He's put up solid stats across the board 14.7 PPG 4.7 RPG 3.4 APG while also shooting 43.3% from 3. Middleton has turned himself into a great catch and shoot player to compliment the Bucks paint heavy attack. He ranks 8th among guards in catch and shoot 3 point % with at least 1.5 attempts per game (above guys like Korver, Reddick, and Thompson). Equally important to Middleton's shooting is his stout perimeter defense. If the Bucks want a chance to win this series they will need to find a way to slow down the Raptors 6th ranked offense. Middleton can do his part if he can contain Raptors star DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan is having a tremendous season averaging 27 ppg on 55 TS%, while also being a contender for All-NBA 3rd team. But he had one of his worst games of the season against Milwaukee, as Middleton and the Bucks harassed DeRozan into 11 points on 5-13 shooting with 3 turnovers. In addition, DeRozan has struggled against Middleton throughout his career too. With averages of just 16 PPG 4.4 APG 3.8 RPG on a frigid 39% from the field. If Middleton can do a strong job on DeRozan while shooting the 3 well, the Bucks could give the Raptors some problems similar to how the Pacers did last post-season.
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Biggest Advantage:
Raptors: Offensive Rebounding
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The Raptors defensive rebounding has been much-maligned this season, ranking just 17th league-wide in DRB%. But their offensive rebounding has been strong all season. For example, the Raptors have the 8th best ORB% at 24.9%. Led by Jonas Valanciunas, the Raptors have been a terror on the offensive glass all season. Conversely, the Bucks struggle mightily with rebounding of any kind, especially on the defensive end where they rank just they ranked just 26th in DRB%. The Bucks will have to find ways to cope with Valanciunas and his 6.9 offensive rebounding chances per game (which ranks in the top 10 league-wide). Also, the Raptors as a team rank 10th in PPP (points per possession) on putbacks and rank 5th in EFG% on putbacks. Whoever the Bucks use to match-up with Valanciunas whether it be Teletovic, Monroe, or Maker they will have their hands full keeping him off the glass. Expect Valanciunas to feast on Bucks rookie Thon Maker when the Bucks go small in a similar fashion to how he did last year against Myles Turner. Above all the Bucks will need to limit how many second chances the Raptors get because giving an offense as potent as this multiple possessions could spell disaster for the Bucks.
Bucks: Transition Offense
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For the Bucks want to have a consistent offense in this series they will need to push the pace on Toronto (And with a player like Giannis why not?). The Bucks rank 7th in PPP in transition offense and over 15% of their offense comes there. Not to mention Giannis himself ranks as one of the best transition players in the Association. He scores 6.8 ppg on 68% EFG in transition and his 1.28 PPP in transition ranks ahead of players like LeBron, Westbrook, and Wall. Put simply, Giannis is a monster when he gets the ball with a clear lane and any team should be afraid if they get sloppy with the ball against the Bucks. Despite this, it will be quite tough for the Bucks to take capitalize on their advantage in transition. First and foremost the Raptors are one of the best teams in the NBA when it comes to taking care of the ball. They rank 5th in the NBA in turnover % at just 11.5%. Moreover, it is well documented that in the playoffs the game slows down and it becomes a more of a half-court affair. In short, the Bucks need to dictate the pace so they can take advantage of the Raptors mediocre transition defense (16th in PPP given up) and not grind it out against Raptors strong half court defense.
Series Storylines
Lowry’s 3 point shooting: Lowry has only played 3 games since returning from a wrist injury. Fortunately, for the Raptors Lowry has faired well in those games overall. Nonetheless, for the Raptors offense to go to another level they need is shooting since he is the only Raptor that is a consistent threat off the dribble from 3. The good news for Toronto is Lowry is shooting 37% from 3 and is 4 of 10 on off the dribble 3s in those games.
Bucks lack of experience: The Bucks do not have much playoff experience on their roster. Their 3 best players Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Brogdon have a combined 12 playoff games between them. Compared to the Raptors who have playoff experience up and down their roster with the likes of Lowry, Ibaka, DeRozan, and Carroll. All of which have played in at least 1 Conference Finals. Another thing to look out for is how the Bucks handle the loud and boisterous crowd at the Air Canada Centre. The Raptors have one of the best home courts in the NBA and the ACC is a hostile environment during the playoffs. It will be interesting to see if the young Bucks crumble under the pressure of the bright lights.
Can the real DeMar DeRozan please stand up?: DeMar DeRozan has struggled throughout most of his playoff career. And minus a strong series against the Cleaveland Cavaliers, DeRozan struggled to generate much or any consistent offense last post-season as well. For his playoff career, DeRozan is shooting an ice cold 39% from the field with just a 14.2 PER. All in all, DeRozan will need to play a lot closer to his regular season self if the Raptors want to reach their goals this year.
Who will guard the Freak?: The Raptors are a deep team and nothing proves this more than their extreme versatility on the defensive end. Toronto can give Giannis plenty of different looks, from the pesky and annoying Demarre Carroll to the bulky and tough as nails P.J Tucker. Additionally, the Raptors have bigs like Ibaka and Patterson, who are strong defenders in their own right and will not be shy about switching onto Giannis. Almost 50% of Giannis’ shots come from between 0-3 feet, so expect the Raptors to sag off and dare Giannis to shoot pull up jumpers which he is shooting just 32% on for the season.
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Other Things To Look Out For
The Raptors have dominated the Bucks in recent seasons, winning 9 of the last 11 games between the two. With an Avg margin of victory of 17.1 points, which does not inspire much confidence for a Bucks upset.
The Raptors have a 6 game losing streak in playoff game 1's, it's imperative the Raptors grab game 1 and not put any undue pressure on themselves early on. A slip up in game 1 could give the Bucks glimmer of hope they are looking for.
Spencer Hawes gave the Raptors fits the last time the teams met. He scored 16 points on 6/7 shooting and was a +14 in that game. It is well known that Valanciunas struggles with stretch 5's and Hawes could help keep JV off the court with his shooting. If Kidd turns to Hawes it could force Casey to play JV less, which could limit the Raptors rebounding advantage.
Tony Snell is another guy the Raptors should be weary of. He’s shooting 40% from 3 this season and infamously has had great games against the Raptors in the past. Snell the last 2 seasons is shooting sizzling 15-38 (39%) from 3 against Toronto. However, Snell has struggled in his career during the playoffs making just 28% of his 3 point shots.
Players to Watch
Raptors: Kyle Lowry 22.9 PER .623 TS% .216 WS/48 6.6 BPM 4.9 VORP 24.8 USG%
Bucks: Giannis Attemkoupmo 26.1 PER .600 TS% .211 WS/48 7.6 BPM 6.9 VORP 28.3 USG%
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Final Thoughts:
All things considered, this should be a relatively stress-free series for the Toronto Raptors.
They are a team that runs deep and has the second most talent in the Eastern Conference. For the Bucks, I think their experience or lack thereof will be extremely noticeable on the road and I expect some sloppy stretches from them on offense. Especially if the Raptors can force them into a slow, grind-it-out half-court game. Also, I expect Lowry torch the Bucks just like he did during the 3 regular season games. In those games, he put up 23 ppg on 50% FG and a crazy hot 54% from 3. Another big advantage for the Raptors is in the pick and roll. The Raptors lead the NBA in PPP in pick and roll ball handler finishes at .95. The Bucks give up 48% EFG in those situations, so expect a lot of pick and roll drives by Lowry, DeRozan, and Joseph. Unfortunately for the Bucks they are just not deep enough and don't really match up well with the Raptors. As the Raptors can also match their small ball lineups with really good small ball units of their own. For the Bucks to have any chance to win, they will need to hit their 3 point shots at a strong clip and Giannis will need to have a huge series on both ends of the floor. I expect a superb series from Giannis, but in the end, the Raptors should be able to overwhelm the young and inexperienced Bucks. I think the Bucks will win one of their home games but that's about it. I would not expect a very competitive series in this
one.
Series Prediction: Raptors in 5
3 on 8 attempts per game. Unfortunately, Lowry had a wrist injury that kept him out of 21 games before returning last Wednesday against the Pistons. The Raptors are coming into the playoffs hot with a 17-7 record since the all-star break including having the 4th best DRTG in that time. To the Bucks credit, they are playing almost as well the Raptors with a 17-10 record post all-star break. While also being no slouches on defense either ranking 10th in DRTG since the all-star break. Ultimately, the Raptors should win this series as they are much more experienced and the flat-out better team, as evidenced by their Eastern Conference-leading 4.2 NET RTG.
X-Factors: The Role Players Who Could Have A Major Impact
Raptors: PF Patrick Patterson 10 PER .540 TS% .098 WS/48 BPM 0.8 VORP 1.1
download (1)
While Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan steal most of the headlines for the Raptors (and rightfully so). Patrick Patterson has been arguably the Raptors 3rd best player for most of this season. Patterson's box score stats look pretty underwhelming this year with averages of only 7 PPG 4.5 RPG and 1.2 APG on a mediocre 54 TS%. Yet, Patterson has an extremely positive impact for the Raptors this season. He is part of 4 of the Raptors top 5 lineups by NET RTG that have played at least 20 minutes together. Furthermore, Patterson has an overall NET RTG of 10.9 this season, which ranks first among Raptors rotation players. Patterson’s 3 point shooting is a key reason for this because his spacing opens up lanes for drive heavy guards like Lowry and Derozan. On the season Patterson is shooting 37% from 3 (38.3% from 3 since the ASB). For the Raptors to win this series it is essential that Patterson hits his open 3 point shots. In wins, Patterson is shooting 40% from 3 and in losses just 29% from 3. What could bode well for Patterson and the Raptors is that in the 4 games against the bucks this season he is shooting a blistering .780 TS% and 53% from 3. If Patterson converts on his open shots while playing solid defense, it could be an easy path to the second round for the Raptors.
Bucks: G/F Khris Middleton 15.1 PER .570 TS% .086 WS/48 BPM -0.5 VORP 0.3
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When it was announced that Khris Middleton would be out with a torn hamstring, many questioned what kind of impact the guard would have for the Bucks this year. Middleton has put any concerns about his play to rest and has come back strong this season. He's put up solid stats across the board 14.7 PPG 4.7 RPG 3.4 APG while also shooting 43.3% from 3. Middleton has turned himself into a great catch and shoot player to compliment the Bucks paint heavy attack. He ranks 8th among guards in catch and shoot 3 point % with at least 1.5 attempts per game (above guys like Korver, Reddick, and Thompson). Equally important to Middleton's shooting is his stout perimeter defense. If the Bucks want a chance to win this series they will need to find a way to slow down the Raptors 6th ranked offense. Middleton can do his part if he can contain Raptors star DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan is having a tremendous season averaging 27 ppg on 55 TS%, while also being a contender for All-NBA 3rd team. But he had one of his worst games of the season against Milwaukee, as Middleton and the Bucks harassed DeRozan into 11 points on 5-13 shooting with 3 turnovers. In addition, DeRozan has struggled against Middleton throughout his career too. With averages of just 16 PPG 4.4 APG 3.8 RPG on a frigid 39% from the field. If Middleton can do a strong job on DeRozan while shooting the 3 well, the Bucks could give the Raptors some problems similar to how the Pacers did last post-season.
Read more…
Biggest Advantage:
Raptors: Offensive Rebounding
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The Raptors defensive rebounding has been much-maligned this season, ranking just 17th league-wide in DRB%. But their offensive rebounding has been strong all season. For example, the Raptors have the 8th best ORB% at 24.9%. Led by Jonas Valanciunas, the Raptors have been a terror on the offensive glass all season. Conversely, the Bucks struggle mightily with rebounding of any kind, especially on the defensive end where they rank just they ranked just 26th in DRB%. The Bucks will have to find ways to cope with Valanciunas and his 6.9 offensive rebounding chances per game (which ranks in the top 10 league-wide). Also, the Raptors as a team rank 10th in PPP (points per possession) on putbacks and rank 5th in EFG% on putbacks. Whoever the Bucks use to match-up with Valanciunas whether it be Teletovic, Monroe, or Maker they will have their hands full keeping him off the glass. Expect Valanciunas to feast on Bucks rookie Thon Maker when the Bucks go small in a similar fashion to how he did last year against Myles Turner. Above all the Bucks will need to limit how many second chances the Raptors get because giving an offense as potent as this multiple possessions could spell disaster for the Bucks.
Bucks: Transition Offense
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For the Bucks want to have a consistent offense in this series they will need to push the pace on Toronto (And with a player like Giannis why not?). The Bucks rank 7th in PPP in transition offense and over 15% of their offense comes there. Not to mention Giannis himself ranks as one of the best transition players in the Association. He scores 6.8 ppg on 68% EFG in transition and his 1.28 PPP in transition ranks ahead of players like LeBron, Westbrook, and Wall. Put simply, Giannis is a monster when he gets the ball with a clear lane and any team should be afraid if they get sloppy with the ball against the Bucks. Despite this, it will be quite tough for the Bucks to take capitalize on their advantage in transition. First and foremost the Raptors are one of the best teams in the NBA when it comes to taking care of the ball. They rank 5th in the NBA in turnover % at just 11.5%. Moreover, it is well documented that in the playoffs the game slows down and it becomes a more of a half-court affair. In short, the Bucks need to dictate the pace so they can take advantage of the Raptors mediocre transition defense (16th in PPP given up) and not grind it out against Raptors strong half court defense.
Series Storylines
Lowry’s 3 point shooting: Lowry has only played 3 games since returning from a wrist injury. Fortunately, for the Raptors Lowry has faired well in those games overall. Nonetheless, for the Raptors offense to go to another level they need is shooting since he is the only Raptor that is a consistent threat off the dribble from 3. The good news for Toronto is Lowry is shooting 37% from 3 and is 4 of 10 on off the dribble 3s in those games.
Bucks lack of experience: The Bucks do not have much playoff experience on their roster. Their 3 best players Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Brogdon have a combined 12 playoff games between them. Compared to the Raptors who have playoff experience up and down their roster with the likes of Lowry, Ibaka, DeRozan, and Carroll. All of which have played in at least 1 Conference Finals. Another thing to look out for is how the Bucks handle the loud and boisterous crowd at the Air Canada Centre. The Raptors have one of the best home courts in the NBA and the ACC is a hostile environment during the playoffs. It will be interesting to see if the young Bucks crumble under the pressure of the bright lights.
Can the real DeMar DeRozan please stand up?: DeMar DeRozan has struggled throughout most of his playoff career. And minus a strong series against the Cleaveland Cavaliers, DeRozan struggled to generate much or any consistent offense last post-season as well. For his playoff career, DeRozan is shooting an ice cold 39% from the field with just a 14.2 PER. All in all, DeRozan will need to play a lot closer to his regular season self if the Raptors want to reach their goals this year.
Who will guard the Freak?: The Raptors are a deep team and nothing proves this more than their extreme versatility on the defensive end. Toronto can give Giannis plenty of different looks, from the pesky and annoying Demarre Carroll to the bulky and tough as nails P.J Tucker. Additionally, the Raptors have bigs like Ibaka and Patterson, who are strong defenders in their own right and will not be shy about switching onto Giannis. Almost 50% of Giannis’ shots come from between 0-3 feet, so expect the Raptors to sag off and dare Giannis to shoot pull up jumpers which he is shooting just 32% on for the season.
Read more…
Other Things To Look Out For
The Raptors have dominated the Bucks in recent seasons, winning 9 of the last 11 games between the two. With an Avg margin of victory of 17.1 points, which does not inspire much confidence for a Bucks upset.
The Raptors have a 6 game losing streak in playoff game 1's, it's imperative the Raptors grab game 1 and not put any undue pressure on themselves early on. A slip up in game 1 could give the Bucks glimmer of hope they are looking for.
Spencer Hawes gave the Raptors fits the last time the teams met. He scored 16 points on 6/7 shooting and was a +14 in that game. It is well known that Valanciunas struggles with stretch 5's and Hawes could help keep JV off the court with his shooting. If Kidd turns to Hawes it could force Casey to play JV less, which could limit the Raptors rebounding advantage.
Tony Snell is another guy the Raptors should be weary of. He’s shooting 40% from 3 this season and infamously has had great games against the Raptors in the past. Snell the last 2 seasons is shooting sizzling 15-38 (39%) from 3 against Toronto. However, Snell has struggled in his career during the playoffs making just 28% of his 3 point shots.
Players to Watch
Raptors: Kyle Lowry 22.9 PER .623 TS% .216 WS/48 6.6 BPM 4.9 VORP 24.8 USG%
Bucks: Giannis Attemkoupmo 26.1 PER .600 TS% .211 WS/48 7.6 BPM 6.9 VORP 28.3 USG%
Read more…
Final Thoughts:
All things considered, this should be a relatively stress-free series for the Toronto Raptors.
They are a team that runs deep and has the second most talent in the Eastern Conference. For the Bucks, I think their experience or lack thereof will be extremely noticeable on the road and I expect some sloppy stretches from them on offense. Especially if the Raptors can force them into a slow, grind-it-out half-court game. Also, I expect Lowry torch the Bucks just like he did during the 3 regular season games. In those games, he put up 23 ppg on 50% FG and a crazy hot 54% from 3. Another big advantage for the Raptors is in the pick and roll. The Raptors lead the NBA in PPP in pick and roll ball handler finishes at .95. The Bucks give up 48% EFG in those situations, so expect a lot of pick and roll drives by Lowry, DeRozan, and Joseph. Unfortunately for the Bucks they are just not deep enough and don't really match up well with the Raptors. As the Raptors can also match their small ball lineups with really good small ball units of their own. For the Bucks to have any chance to win, they will need to hit their 3 point shots at a strong clip and Giannis will need to have a huge series on both ends of the floor. I expect a superb series from Giannis, but in the end, the Raptors should be able to overwhelm the young and inexperienced Bucks. I think the Bucks will win one of their home games but that's about it. I would not expect a very competitive series in this
one.
Series Prediction: Raptors in 5