What Are The Trends That Affect Australia's Population

With Australia’s population at approximately 21 million and counting, it is an important challenge for the future of the nation. Over the years, there have been many factors that have affected the Australian population and in the future there will be plenty more. During the post-WWII period, a catchphrase used by politicians and industrialists was ‘populate or perish’, used along with the claim that Australia would not be able to defend itself if under attack. A larger population was argued to help boost the Australian economy. Trends that have affected Australia’s population include population growth, age structure and spacial distribution.

Population growth is an important trend that affects the population of Australia. Over the past 100 years, Australia’s population has boomed. Take, for example, the Australian population of 3.8 million in 1990. By the end of the 20th Century (1999), Australia’s population was 18.9 million. By 2003, the population had risen to 20 million. In the period after World War II,
much of this population increase occurred. The influx of immigrants from war-torn Europe resulted in a booming birth rate and lifted the population from 7 million to 11.5 million over 20 years (1945-1965). Those born after the war were, and still are, known as the baby boomers. As these baby boomers now reach retirement age, Australia is described as an ageing population . Population growth can be classified under to terms; ‘natural increase’ and ‘net migration’. Natural increase refers to the increase associated with the birth of children. The increase is calculated by subtracting the total number of deaths from births. Net migration refers to the migration of people in and out of Australia. The increase is calculated by subtracting the total number of Australians leaving to permanently live overseas from the number of people arriving in Australia to stay.

Australia’s Bureau of Statistics (ABS) collects information regarding the population of Australia. Occasionally, they create long-term projections of Australia’s population growth, known as population projections. These projections are based off assumptions of variables of future births, deaths and migration. Population projections calculate three scenarios (known as ‘Series’) based off the variables. In most projections, three scenarios are taken from a possible 72 combinations. Series A and C are based on high and low assumptions of the variables (respectively), while Series B reflects the current trends in fertility, life expectancy at birth and net migration (interstate and overseas)
The project projections covering the period of 30th June 2008 to 2101 are as follows:

The estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30th June 2007 was 21 million. By 2056, it is estimated to have grown to between 30.9 million and 42.5 million, and by 2101 is estimated to have grown to between 33.7 million and 62.2 million. This projection is shown in the adjacent graph, where Series A represents the highest growth and Series C represents the lowest growth.

Australia is among the world’s developed countries and is made up of an ageing population, meaning the population has a larger share of older people.
This trend is evident in the current age structure and is determined to continue well into the future. This ageing population is determined to continue due to declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. In 2002, the average life expectancy was 35.9 years, however by 2051, life expectancy is estimated to rise to 46 and 49.9 years. Additionally, the proportion of the population under the age of 15 percent was 20% in 2002 and is estimated to drop to 12-15% in 2051. As the ageing population grows, the government must meet the challenges of providing healthcare, nursing homes and other needs of the elderly. The government must also deal with a smaller workforce, as more of the population would be retired, resulting in fewer people working to pay taxes which fund government services for the
population.

Another trend in Australia’s population is that of spatial distribution. This refers to the distribution of features (i.e. cities/towns) over a geographical area. Spatial distribution is a factor of population as Australia is filled with arid or semi-arid land. For most of the arid areas, populations cannot survive, meaning a majority of Australians live near/on the coast.

As the population of Australia grows, so do the implications involved. These implications include ecological sustainability, population movement and urban planning.

Ecological sustainability covers the effects of population on the environment. Living in the arid conditions results in lack of access to water due to inconsistent rainfall and being in land, as well as land degradation due to farming, etc. On the other hand, a majority of the Australian population live along the coast. This can also have serious consequences on the environment. Coastal environments are damaged easily and frequently by human activity. Water resources are also restricted, due to Australia being a dry continent which is regularly in drought. Land degradation and waste disposal are also implications of population trends. The land is now exposed to wind and water erosion, as well as rising saline water tables. This is due to the clearing of land for agriculture. Managing waste is another major challenge that faces society, especially in Australia. Previously, Australia’s large amounts of solid and liquid waste were disposed of in landfill sites. However, as technology advances, it can be used to treat high levels of sewerage.

Trends such as population growth, age structure and spacial distribution have been causes for the boom in population over the years. These booms also create implications, such as ecological sustainability and waste management.