INDIA – A CASE OF TURMERIC”
Prof Gurbandini Kaur,
All India Management Association (AIMA),
Email: gkaur@aima-ind.org
Abstract
A commodity exchange is defined as a market where buyers and sellers trade commodity linked contracts on the basis of terms and conditions laid down by Commodity Exchange
(UNCTAD, 2007). At present, there are 23 exchanges operating in India and carrying out futures trading activities in as many as 146 commodity items.
As per the recommendation of the Forward Market Commission (FMC), the Government of
India recognized the National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE), Ahmedabad, MultiCommodity Exchange (MCX) and National Commodity and Derivative Exchange
(NCDEX), Mumbai, as nation-wide multi-commodity exchanges. NMCE commenced in
November 2002 and MCX in November 2003 and NCDEX in December 2003. In an emerging market context like India, the growth of capital and commodity future market would depend on effectiveness of derivatives in managing risk. There have been extensive research and commodity future markets in several countries across the world.
However, reviews of literature on commodity future markets indicate that while there has been research on technical questions, the research has had inefficient economic content.
Thus our paper focuses the studying correlation between spot and future price for commodity market, turmeric in particular.
Keywords: national Multi-Commodity Exchange, Multi-Commodity Exchange, National
Commodity and Derivative Exchange, Spot Price, Future Price, Arbitrage,
________________________________________________________________________
1. INTRODUCTION
A commodity exchange is defined as a market where buyers and sellers trade commodity linked contracts on the basis of terms and conditions laid down by Commodity Exchange
(UNCTAD, 2007).
The history of organized commodity derivatives in India goes back to the nineteenth century when the Cotton Trade
References: Anderson, R.W., & Danthine, J.P. (1981), Cross Economy, 81, 1182 – 1196 hedging, Journal of Political Baillie & Myers (1991), Bivariate GARCH estimation of the optimal commodity Bhaduri, & Durai (2008), Optimal hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness of stock index futures: evidence from India, Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging political weekly, March Bose S (2007), Understanding the Volatility Characteristics and Transmission Effects Choudhry (2004), The hedging effectiveness of constant and time-varying hedge ratios using three Pacific Basin stock futures, International Review of Economics and Finance, 13, 271-385 Claessens (1991), Integrating commodity and exchange rate risk management: Cuddy and Della Valle (1978), Measuring the instability of time series data, Bulletin Oxford University Institute of Economics and Statistics 40, February, pp.79-85 Ederington, L.H. (1979), The hedging Performance of the New Future Markets. The Journal of Finance , 36, 157 - 170 Floros C & Vougas (2006), Hedging effectiveness in Greek Stock index futures market 1991-2001, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 5, 718. Gemmill (1985), Forward contracts or international buffer stocks? A study of their relative efficiencies in stabilizing commodity export earnings, economic Journal, 95, Gilbert (1985), Futures trading and the welfare evaluation of commodity price stabilization, Economic Journal, 95 (Sep), pp.61-637. Ghosh (1993), Co-integration and error correction models: Inter-temporal causality between index and futures prices, Journal of Futures Markets 13, 193-198 Glezakos (1973), Export instability and economic growth, A statistical verification, Economic Development and Cultural Change 21, July, 670-678. Gorton Gary B, Rouwenhorest Geert K (2005), Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures, SSRN.com Johnson, L. (1960), The theory of hedging and speculation in Commodity Futures, Review of Economic Studies, 27, 139 – 151 Kaminsky Graciela (1989), Efficiency in Commodity Futures Markets, SSRN.com Kavussanos & Nomikos (2000), Constant vs Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books Lam, N V., 1980, Export instability, expansion, and market concentration: A Lien et al (2002), Evaluating the hedging performance of the constant-correlation GARCH model, Applied Financial Econometrics, 12, 791-798. Lokare, S.M., 2007, Commodity Derivatives and Price Risk Management: An Empirical Anecdote from India, Reserve Bank of India, Occasional Papers, vol.28, Massell, B.F. 1970, Export instability and economic structure, American Economic Review 60, Sept., 618-630. Mishra Alok Kumar (2008), Commodity Futures Markets in India: Riding the Growth Phase, SSRN.com Nath C Golaka & Tulsi Lingarrddy (2008), Commodity Derivative Market and Its Impact on Spot Market, SSRN.com O’Hara, Maureen. 1984, Commodity bond and consumption risks. Journal of Finance, 39 (March), pp Overdahl, James. 1986, The use of crude oil futures y the government of oil purchasing states, working paper series #CFSM-136, The University of Texas at Dallas, school of Management Park & Switzer (1995), Bivariante GARCH estimation of the optimal hedge ratios for Pennings, J.M.E, & Meulenberg, M.T.G (1997), Hedging efficiency: a futures exchange management approach Prebisch (1950), The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems Rolfo (1980), Optimal Hedging under Price and Quantity Uncertainty: The Case of a Cocoa Producer, Journal of political economy, 88, 100-116. Roy and Kumar (2007), CASTOR SEED Futures Trading: Seasonality in Return of Spot and Futures Market, Paper presented at the 4th International Conference of Sahi Gurpreet S., Raizada Gaurav (2006), Commodity Futures Market Efficiency in India and Effect on Inflation, SSRN.com Silber, W. (1985), The economic role of financial futures. In A.E..Peck (Ed.), Futures markets: Their economic role, Washington D.C.: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research Singer (1950), The distribution of gains between investing and borrowing countries, Thomas, Susan (2003), Agricultural commodity market in India: Policy issues for growth, Technical report, IGIDR Wang Hong & Bingfanke (2005), Efficiency Tests of Agricultural Commodity Futures Markets in China Wright and Williams (1990), The behavior of markets for storable commodities, Presented at the Annual conference of the Australian agricultural economics society,