A Survey Report on Demand Forecasting of a Product
NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT
For the National Electricity Market (NEM)
2012
NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT
Disclaimer
This document is subject to an important disclaimer that limits or excludes AEMO’s liability. Please read the full disclaimer on page D1.
Published by
AEMO
Australian Energy Market Operator ABN 94 072 010 327 Copyright © 2012 AEMO
ii
© AEMO 2012
FOREWORD
This is the first edition of AEMO’s National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR), which represents the first time AEMO has developed independent electricity demand forecasts on a consistent basis for the five National Electricity Market (NEM) regions, namely New South Wales (including the Australian Capital Territory), Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and Victoria. National Electricity Forecasting represents a package of information papers and reports that document the input data, assumptions, and methodology used to develop a set of annual energy and maximum demand forecasts for the NEM, ensuring an open and transparent process. This will then allow AEMO to engage and work collaboratively with stakeholders to ensure continued efficiency in terms of NEM operations. In the past, AEMO has published demand forecasts via a series of AEMO planning publications, namely the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Victorian Annual Planning Report (VAPR), and the South Australian Supply and Demand Outlook (SASDO). From 2012, the NEFR will be the only AEMO publication presenting electricity demand forecasts for the NEM. Robust independent forecasting is needed to assist AEMO with planning efficient future investment in electricity infrastructure to service the long-term needs of energy consumers. These forecasts are used for both operational purposes, including the calculation of marginal loss factors, and as a key input into AEMO’s national transmission planning role. Significant factors currently influencing changes in demand involve the
For the National Electricity Market (NEM)
2012
NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT
Disclaimer
This document is subject to an important disclaimer that limits or excludes AEMO’s liability. Please read the full disclaimer on page D1.
Published by
AEMO
Australian Energy Market Operator ABN 94 072 010 327 Copyright © 2012 AEMO
ii
© AEMO 2012
FOREWORD
This is the first edition of AEMO’s National Electricity Forecasting Report (NEFR), which represents the first time AEMO has developed independent electricity demand forecasts on a consistent basis for the five National Electricity Market (NEM) regions, namely New South Wales (including the Australian Capital Territory), Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, and Victoria. National Electricity Forecasting represents a package of information papers and reports that document the input data, assumptions, and methodology used to develop a set of annual energy and maximum demand forecasts for the NEM, ensuring an open and transparent process. This will then allow AEMO to engage and work collaboratively with stakeholders to ensure continued efficiency in terms of NEM operations. In the past, AEMO has published demand forecasts via a series of AEMO planning publications, namely the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), the Victorian Annual Planning Report (VAPR), and the South Australian Supply and Demand Outlook (SASDO). From 2012, the NEFR will be the only AEMO publication presenting electricity demand forecasts for the NEM. Robust independent forecasting is needed to assist AEMO with planning efficient future investment in electricity infrastructure to service the long-term needs of energy consumers. These forecasts are used for both operational purposes, including the calculation of marginal loss factors, and as a key input into AEMO’s national transmission planning role. Significant factors currently influencing changes in demand involve the