DEMOGRAPHICS LAB ASSINGMENT

DEMOGRAPHICS DATA TABLE

LESSON 1

Lesson 1: Step 1
Country
Birthrate
Death Rate
Population Growth 2005
Population Growth 2050
Relative place in Transition
Social Factors 1
Social Factors 2
GDP per capita:
Social Factors 3
Median Age:
USA
2.06/2.06
0.51%/1.23%
0.92%
-0.06%
Post-Industrial
High Literacy Rate
$48,000
36.7
China
1.62/1.62
0.3%/1.4%
0.6%
-0.58%
Post-Industrial
Limitation on Number of Children
$6,100
33.6
Egypt
2.83/2.83
0.41%/0.79%
2%
1.32%
Mature
Industrial to Post-Industrial
Unemployment Rate: 8.7%
$5,500
24.5
India
2.35/2.35
0.39%/0.94%
1.56%
0.76%
Mature to Post-Industrial
Population: 1,147,995,904
$2,900
25.1
Italy
1.28/1.28
0.72%/2.14%
0.35%
-1.33%
Post-Industrial
TFR: 1.3 children/women
$33,000
42.9
Mexico
2.43/2.43
0.25%/0.75%
1.41%
0.96%
Mature- Industrial
Life Expectancy at Birth: 75.84
$14,400
26
Nigeria
4.78/4.78
0.26%/0.36%
2.46%
3.58%
Mechanization of Agriculture
HIV/AIDS adult prevalence rate: 5.4%
$2,200
18.9

Lesson 1: Step 2
Country
Shape of Pyramid: Prediction
Shape of Pyramid: Simulation
USA
Slowly widening base
Straight sides
China
Thick in the middle, thin on bottom and top
Thick in the middle, thin on bottom and top
Egypt
Widening base that levels off
Widening base
India
Widening base that levels off
Widening base
Italy
Upside-down pyramid
Upside-down pyramid
Mexico
Widening base that levels off
Wide base
Nigeria
Wide base
Wide base

Responses to Questions

1. The general trend for more developed countries suggests a longer life expectancy and lower TFR. This trend is due to milder birth and death rates in more developed countries. Less developed countries, such as Nigeria, have more extreme birth and death rates.

2. Contraception, lower infant mortality, and equal opportunity for women. The best way to introduce these factors is to train capable doctors and to have them spread medicine and education about medicine. Equal opportunity for both sexes is something that develops at a rate dependent on the country’s cultural background.

3. The demographic transitions, while they hold some truth to them, are difficult to apply to modern countries. This is because modern countries are affected by so many different demographic factors that they very rarely fit a common pattern. Epidemics, cultural influences, laws, etc. all play a role in modern demographic transition.

4. The more developed countries appear to have vertical edges, which signify 0 population growth, and the less developed countries appear to have very broad bases.

5. Countries with no elderly citizens are generally less developed, because there are fewer trained professionals in the work force. Countries with few youth have trouble with programs such as social security because there is no base to support the elderly.

Notes

DEMOGRAPHICS DATA TABLE

LESSON 2

Lesson 2: Step 1
Nigeria
Default
Prediction
+ 5 years
+15 years
-5 years
Birth rate
4.78
Lower
Lower
Lower
Higher
Death rate
0.36%
Constant
Higher
Higher
Lower
Population growth
3.58%
Lower
Lower
Lower
Higher

Sketch of Nigeria using USA birth and death rates:

Lesson 2: Step 2
Italy
Prediction
+ 5 years
+15 years
-5 years
Birth rate
Decrease
Constant
Constant
Constant
Death rate
Higher
Lower
Lower
Higher
Population growth
Lower
Lower
Lower
Higher

Responses to Questions:

1. The shape of the pyramid is steeper with time. This is because the birthrate, which overwhelmed the death rate entirely at the beginning, slows down with time, and the death rate speeds up, causing the pyramid to grow steeper and the population growth to slow.

2. Birthrate slows and death rate increases because women are more capable of having children when they are younger. First world countries have older childbearing women because women in first world countries usually spend more time exploring their options and meeting people.

Notes:

DEMOGRAPHICS DATA TABLE

LESSON 3

Lesson 3: Step 1
Egypt
Prediction
Simulated 1
Simulated 2
Simulated 3
Birth rate
2.55 children/woman
1.67children/woman
0
0
Death rate
0.52%
0.52%
0%
0%
Population Growth
1.04%
0%
0%
0%

Lesson 3: Step 2
Country
Pyramid
Prediction
Pyramid
Simulation
Predicted Birthrate
Predicted
Death Rate
Predicted
Population Growth
Simulated Birthrate
Simulated
Death Rate
Simulated
Population Growth
USA
Slowly Rounded pyramid
Pyramidal on top, block-shaped on the bottom
2.17
0.51%
0%
2.15
0.98%
0%
Mexico
Very steep looking pyramid
Dome on top, rapidly expands at the bottom
1.95
1.18%
-0.16%
1.88%
0.91%
0%

Responses to Questions:

1. Very close. I assumed that a country with 0 population growth had to be developed, so the birthrate would most likely not exceed 2.5%

2. Egypt would have to put a legal limit on the number of children that a couple could have. This proposal would face many questions on its ethicality.

3. Egypt’s current growth rate is higher than that of Mexico or the United States, so Egypt would have to take bigger steps to limit growth. The societal factors mentioned in Lesson 1 account for the differences in growth rate.

4. Immigration from Mexico to the U.S. leads to a population increase in the U.S. and a decrease in Mexico, but that does not negate Mexico’s increased birthrate.

5. The U.S.’s pyramid would become way broader at the base. Mexico would have to provide some incentives to stay in Mexico or secure the borders so that people could not emigrate.

6. In Europe, there is definitely a tendency for countries to experience immigration. In Latin America and some parts of continental Asia, emigration is likely.

7. Higher death rates because the country is unable to provide for a population as large as the one which it controls.