the yearly registration for a seminar at GIPS are shown in the following table: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Registrations (000) 4 6 4 5 10 8 7 9 12 14 15 a) Develop a 3-year moving average to forecast registration from year 4 to year 12. b) Estimate demands again for years 4 to 12 with a weighted moving average in which registration in the most recent year are given a weight of 2 and registration in the other 2 years are given a weight of 1. c) Graph the original data and the two forecasts.
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that indicates how much on average each of the values in the distribution deviates from the mean (or center) of the distribution. Bollinger Bands‚ created by John Bollinger in the 1960s‚ is an indicator that uses this statistical measure to determine support and resistance levels. This indicator consists of three lines and is very simple to derive; the middle line is a simple moving average of the underlying price data and the two outside bands are equal to the moving average plus or minus one standard
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Amazon.com—Not Your Average Bookstore Jeffrey Bezos‚ CEO and founder of Amazon.com‚ is running what some people refer to as the “world’s biggest bookstore.” The story of Bezos’s virtual bookstore teaches many lessons about online business. Out of nowhere‚ this digital bookstore turned an industry upside down. What happened here was more than just creating a Web site. Bezos conceived and implemented an intelligent‚ global digital business. Its business is its technology; its technology is its business
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FORECASTING FORECASTING The Role of the Manager Planning Organizing Staffing Leading Controlling Future ? Data Information • Short-range • Medium-range • Long-range Features Common to All Forecasts Forecasting techniques generally assume that same underlying causal system that existed in the past will continue to exist in the future. Forecasts are rarely perfect. Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items. Forecast
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period’s actual value as a forecast Simple Mean (Average) Uses an average of all past data as a forecast Simple Moving Average Uses an average of a specified number of the most recent observations‚ with each observation receiving the same emphasis (weight) Weighted Moving Average Uses an average of a specified number of the most recent observations‚ with each observation receiving a different emphasis (weight) Exponential Smoothing A weighted average procedure with weights declining exponentially
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data. 2. SIMPLE AVERAGE METHOD Advantages Of Simple Average Method Main advantages of simple average method are as follows: 1. Simple average method is very suitable when materials are received in uniform lot quantities. 2. Simple average method is very easy to operate. 3. Simple average method reduces clerical work. Disadvantages Of Simple Average Method Major disadvantages of simple average method are as follows: 1. If the quantity in each lot varies widely‚ the average price will lead to
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Naïve Methods Naïve Forecast – uses a single previous value of a time series as the basis of a forecast. Techniques for Averaging • What is the purpose of averaging? • Common Averaging Techniques o Moving Averages o Exponential smoothing Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Techniques for Trend Linear Trend Equation Curvilinear Trend Equation Techniques for Seasonality • What is seasonality? • What are seasonal relatives
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process of find 20X5 will include the use of moving averages‚ weighted moving averages‚ and exponential smoothing. The Palmdale Human Services personal expenses for the past four years are represented in the following data: Fiscal Year | Expense | 20X1 | $5‚250‚000 | 20X2 | $5‚500‚000 | 20X3 | $6‚000‚000 | 20X4 | $6‚750‚000 | For moving averages and weighted moving averages‚ use only the data for the past three fiscal years: Moving Averages Fiscal Year | Expenses | 20X2 | $5‚500‚000 |
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For example‚ raw materials for the leather jackets need to be ordered 8 months ahead. And‚ in the short term‚ food and labor for daily operations should be forecasted. Hard Rock uses many of the forecasting techniques as: moving averages‚ weighted moving averages‚ exponential smoothing‚ and regression analysis. They start forecasting at the unit level every month‚ then take it to the quarter‚ and then to a year. All this data is compared to previous years and to the budget expectation to make
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better estimates of what will happen in the future n This is the main purpose of forecasting n Some firms use subjective methods n Seat-of-the pants methods‚ intuition‚ experience n There are also several quantitative techniques n Moving averages‚ exponential smoothing‚ trend projections‚ least squares regression analysis` © 2009 Prentice-Hall‚ Inc. 5–2 1 9/5/14 Introduction n Eight steps to forecasting : 1. Determine the use of the forecast—what objective are we trying to obtain
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