Forecasting Methodology Forecasting is an integral part in planning the financial future of any business and allows the company to consider probabilities of current and future trends using existing data and facts. Forecasts are vital to every business organization and for every significant management decision. Forecasting‚ according to Armstrong (2001)‚ is the basis of corporate long-run planning. Many times‚ this unique approach is used not only to provide a baseline‚ but also to offer a prediction
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What implication do fluctuations in foreign exchange rates have on the pricing decisions of export marketing managers? Globalization is no longer an abstraction but a stark reality that virtually all firms‚ large and a small‚ face. Firms that want to survive in the 21st century must confront all encompassing force that pervades every aspect of business. However‚ exchange rate fluctuation is an issue that affects the decisions marketing managers make about pricing. Management faces different decision
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is a fixed exchange rate system that fixes the exchange rate of Hong Kong Dollar and United State Dollar to a ratio of 7.8: 1 Hong Kong Monetary Authority does not need to stable exchange market by controlling the supply and demand of HKD. It can be stabilized by Fixed-linkage System. In the past 15 years‚ Hong Kong interest rates and exchange rates fluctuated in the same trend of the US interest rate and exchange rate. The graphs below show an example of interest rate and exchange rate respectively:
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MANAGEMENT OF EXCHANGE RATE RISK EXPOSURE There are number of ways by which exchange rate risk exposure can be managed: - Natural Hedges - Cash Management - Adjusting of Intracompany accounts - International financing hedges and currency hedges through forward contracts‚ futures contracts‚ currency options and currency swaps NATURAL HEDGE - A hedge (risk reduction action) that occurs naturally as a result of a firm’s normal operations. For example‚ revenue received in a foreign
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Chapter 7 FORECASTING QUESTIONS & ANSWERS Q7.1 Accurate company sales and profit forecasting requires careful consideration of firm-specific and broader influences. Discuss some of the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors a firm must consider in its own sales and profit forecasting. Q7.1 ANSWER The better a company can assess future demand‚ the better it can plan its resources. Every corporation is exposed to three types of factors influencing demand: company‚ competitive and
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Interest Rate Forecasting using Regression Analysis Introduction Forecast of interest rates can be done in many different ways‚ qualitative (surveys‚ opinion polls) as well as quantitative (reduced form and structural approaches)* Example of methods in quantitative approaches - Regression method - Univariate method (e.g. ARIMA) - Vector autogressive models (VAR) - Single equation approaches - Structural systems of simultaneous equations This paper will focus on the structural
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Explain of how the Linked Exchange Rate System works in Hong Kong. A Linked Exchange Rate systems function is to keep a currency stabile to another. In this manner‚ the HK Dollar has been linked to US Dollar at the rate of 7.8 HKD to 1 USD‚ since 1983. In order to maintain this exchange rate‚ any change in the monetary base is fully backed by a corresponding change in the respective currency at this exchange rate. Most banknotes in HK are issued by three note-issuing banks. So for example
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DEMAND FORECASTING The Context of Demand Forecasting The Importance of Demand Forecasting Forecasting product demand is crucial to any supplier‚ manufacturer‚ or retailer. Forecasts of future demand will determine the quantities that should be purchased‚ produced‚ and shipped. Demand forecasts are necessary since the basic operations process‚ moving from the suppliers’ raw materials to finished goods in the customers’ hands‚ takes time. Most firms cannot simply wait for demand to emerge and then
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Global Financing and Exchange Rate Mechanisms Paper Global finance operations include financial procedures‚ such as accounting‚ financial planning and analysis‚ strategic planning‚ treasury‚ investor relations‚ and financial compliance. Exchange rate is the existing market cost for which one currency can be exchanged for another (Moffatt‚ n.d.). For instance‚ when the U.S. exchange rate for the Japanese Yen is ¥1.10‚ this means that 1 American Dollar can be exchanged for 1.1 Japanese Yen. The
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Forecasting Assignment There are many forecasting methods including seasonal‚ Delphi‚ technological and time series. Depending upon the situation‚ one may work better for a company than another. In describing forecasting‚ Amara and Salanik (1972) offer the following: Forecasting is: a statement about the future:‚ a probabilistic statement about the future: a probabilistic‚ reasonably definite statement about the future: a probabilistic‚ reasonably definite statement about the future‚ based
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