Probability Concepts 1. Fundamental Concepts of Probability 2. Mutually Exclusive and Collectively Exhaustive 3. Statistically Independent and Dependent Events 4. Bayes’Theorem Learning Objectives • Understand the basic foundations of probability analysis • Learn the probability rules for conditional probability and joint probability • Use Bayes’ theorem to establish posterior probabilities Reference: Text Chapter 2 Introduction • Life is uncertain; we are note sure what the
Premium Conditional probability Probability theory
Probability theory Probability: A numerical measure of the chance that an event will occur. Experiment: A process that generates well defined outcomes. Sample space: The set of all experimental outcomes. Sample point: An element of the sample space. A sample point represents an experimental outcome. Tree diagram: A graphical representation that helps in visualizing a multiple step experiment. Classical method: A method of assigning probabilities that is appropriate when all the experimental
Premium Conditional probability Probability theory
be able to ONEDefine probability. TWO Describe the classical‚ empirical‚ and subjective approaches to probability. THREEUnderstand the terms experiment‚ event‚ outcome‚ permutation‚ and combination. FOURDefine the terms conditional probability and joint probability. FIVE Calculate probabilities applying the rules of addition and multiplication. SIXUse a tree diagram to organize and compute probabilities. SEVEN Calculate a probability using Bayes theorem. What is probability There is really no answer
Premium Conditional probability Probability theory
SECOND CONDITIONAL Why we use second conditional? We are thinking about a particular condition in the future‚ and the result of this condition. But there is not a real possibility. For example‚ you do not have a lottery ticket. Is it possible to win? No! No lottery ticket‚ no win! But maybe you will buy a lottery ticket in the future. So you can think about winning in the future‚ like a dream. It’s not very real‚ but it’s still possible. For Example: If I had millions dollars‚ I’d give a lot
Premium Future
2010 Words of Probability ISHIGURO‚ Makio(The Institute of Statistical Mathematics) Words of Probability ISHIGURO‚ Makio(The Institute of Statistical Mathematics) Key Words: subjective probability‚ confidence‚ belief‚ frequency‚ verbal expression Abstract There are everyday expressions such that ’probably’; ’might be’;’could be’ etc.‚ to describe the strengths of one’s confidence in the occurrence of events in the future. On the other hand there are probability theory expressions
Premium Decision theory Conditional probability Statistics
Type I or Type II Decide whether the following Conditional Sentences are Type I or Type II. 1. If they go to Australia‚ they will go whale-watching. Type I Type II 2. If she had a mobile‚ I would call her. Type I Type II 3. If Bob were here‚ he would have a solution for our problem. Type I Type II 4. If you move here‚ we will see each other more often. Type I Type II 5. You’ll live longer if you stop smoking. Type I Type II 6. If Sarah didn’t go with John
Premium If You Have to Ask
PROBABILITY and MENDELIAN GENETICS LAB Hypothesis: If we toss the coin(s) for many times‚ then we will have more chances to reach the prediction that we expect based on the principle of probability. Results: As for part 1: probability of the occurrence of a single event‚ the deviation of heads and tails of 20 tosses is zero‚ which means that the possibility of heads and tails is ten to ten‚ which means equally chances. The deviation of heads and tails of 30 tosses is 4‚ which means that the
Premium Gregor Mendel Genetics Allele
DIRECTIONS: Change the following sentences into untrue conditional statements. In order to do this exercise correctly‚ you must 1. Decide if the sentence is about situation B or C‚ 2. Use the appropriate conditional verb forms for the if and result clauses (look at the chart in Lesson 2 on conditional verb forms). 3. Total 25 points Example 1: Maria feels tired all the time because she goes to bed so late. RESULT CONDITION (B) But
Premium
Probability 2 Theory Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability‚ the analysis of random phenomena. (Feller‚ 1966) One object of probability theory is random variables. An individual coin toss would be considered to be a random variable. I predict if the coin is tossed repeatedly many times the sequence of it landing on either heads or tails will be about even. Experiment The Experiment we conducted was for ten students to flip a coin one hundred times
Premium Probability theory Random variable Expected value
BBA (Fall - 2014) Business Statistics Theory of Probability Ahmad Jalil Ansari Business Head Enterprise Solution Division Random Process In a random process we know that what outcomes or events could happen; but we do not know which particular outcome or event will happen. For example tossing of coin‚ rolling of dice‚ roulette wheel‚ changes in valuation in shares‚ demand of particular product etc. Probability It is the numeric value representing the chance‚ likelihood‚ or possibility
Premium Probability theory