Should Merck license the compound? Merck would be responsible for 1) the approval of Davanrik 2) the manufacture of Danavrik 3) marketing of Danavrik Merck would pay LAB for 1) initial fee 2) royalty on all sales 3) make additional pymts as Danavrik completed each stage of approval process (3 Phases) Additional facts: approval process should take 7 years patent will cover 17 years (7 of approval process nad 10 yr period of exclusivity beginning in yr 7) 1 Assumptions: All Cash flows
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going off patent is to develop new drugs in order to refresh the company’s portfolio. LAB Pharmaceuticals‚ a small pharmaceutical company who specializes in the treatment of neurological disorders‚ has approached Merck with the opportunity to license Davanrik‚ a new drug with the potential to treat both depression and obesity. The drug is currently in pre-clinical development and would still need to pass a seven year and three phase testing process approved by the FDA. Under the licensing agreement‚ Merck
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Evaluation of Financial Information Syllabus (Subject to minor changes) Spring 2012 Prof. Anna Scherbina UC Davis Graduate School of Management Office: 3212 Gallagher Hall Course Focus Tel: 530.754.8076 e-mail: ascherbina@ucdavis.edu We will learn how to use financial information to value firms‚ projects‚ and securities in a wide variety of industries‚ including real estate. The course will be based entirely on the Harvard Business School case studies and will focus on learning techniques
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manufacturing (which products to produce‚ how much to produce‚ which technology to invest) marketing (new products‚ promotion strategies)‚ & so on. 3 – Decision Analysis 3 A list of alternatives. A list of possible future states of nature. Payoffs associated with each alternative/state of nature combination. An assessment of the degree of certainty of possible future events. A decision criterion. The list of alternatives must be the set of mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive decisions
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Analysis Example Consider the following problem with three decision alternatives and three states of nature with the following payoff table representing profits: States of Nature s1 s2 s3 d1 4 4 Decisions d2 0 3 d3 1 5 Which decision do you choose? -2 -1 -3 Problem Formulation • A decision problem is characterized by decision alternatives‚ states of nature‚ and resulting payoffs. • The decision alternatives are the different possible strategies the decision maker can employ. • The states of nature refer
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state occurs. Payoff tables are organized so that the decision situations can be analyzed. Using a payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation‚ including the payoffs from different decisions‚ given the various states of nature. Each decision will result in a specific outcome corresponding to the particular state of nature that occurs in the future. Payoffs are usually expressed as revenues or costs‚ but the can be expressed in a variety of values. Once a payoff table has been organized
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Problem No. 3 In a certain lottery‚ a lottery ticket costs $2. In terms of the decision to purchase or not to purchase a lottery ticket‚ suppose that the following payoff table applies: Decision Alternatives Win s1 Loses s2 Purchase lottery ticket‚ d1 300‚000 -2 Do not purchase lottery ticket‚ d2 0 0 Payoff Table a.) A realistic estimate of the chances of winning is 1 in 250‚000. approach to recommend a decision. Use the expected value Answer: Given: Realistic estimate
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Chapter 13: Chi-Square Applications SHORT ANSWER 1. When samples of size n are drawn from a normal population‚ the chi-square distribution is the sampling distribution of = ____________________‚ where s2 and are the sample and population variances‚ respectively. ANS: PTS: 1 OBJ: Section 13.2 2. Find the chi-square value for each of the right-tail areas below‚ given that the degrees of freedom are 7: A) 0.95 ____________________ B) 0.01 ____________________ C) 0.025 ____________________
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decision-making under uncertainty‚ including expected payoff‚ expected opportunity loss‚ maximin‚ maximax‚ and minimax regret. 3. Learn how to construct and analyze decision trees. 4. Understand aspects of utility theory. 5. Learn how to revise probabilities with sample information. CHAPTER OUTLINE 19.1 The Decision Table and Decision Making Under Certainty Decision Table Decision-Making Under Certainty
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DECISION ANALYSIS PROBLEMS Many decision analysis problems can be viewed as having three variables: decision alternatives‚ states of nature‚ and payoffs. • Decision alternatives are the various choices or options available to the decision maker in any given problem situation. On most days‚ financial managers face the choices of whether to invest in blue chip stocks‚ bonds‚ commodities‚ certificates of deposit‚ money markets‚ annuities‚ and other investments. Construction decision makers must
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