MODULES Quantitative Module Decision-Making Tools A Module Outline THE DECISION PROCESS IN OPERATIONS FUNDAMENTALS OF DECISION MAKING DECISION TABLES TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING ENVIRONMENTS Decision Making Under Uncertainty Decision Making Under Risk Decision Making Under Certainty Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) DECISION TREES A More Complex Decision Tree Using Decision Trees in Ethical Decision Making SUMMARY KEY TERMS USING SOFTWARE FOR DECISION MODELS SOLVED PROBLEMS INTERNET
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Contents 1. Decision making .................................................................................................................................. 2 1.1. 1.2. Information systems.................................................................................................................... 2 1.3. 2. What is decision making? ........................................................................................................... 2 The process of decision making ...
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A Case Study of “Rational Decision Making” Ali Rashid Cheema ECON 401: Engineering Economics Decision Making •Decision – Making a choice from two or more alternatives. •The Decision-Making Process – Identifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria. – Developing‚ analyzing‚ and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem. – Implementing the selected alternative. – Evaluating the decision’s effectiveness. The Situation • Hamzah is a sales
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1 I 1.1 Chapter Outline A Decision Tree Model and Its Analysis • The following concepts are introduced through the use of a simple decision tree example (the Bill Sampras ’ summer job decision): Decision tree Decision node Event node Mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive set of events Branches and final values Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Optimal decision strategy • Introduction of the folding back or backward induction procedure for solving a decision tree. • Discussion on sensitivity
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Approaches to Decision Making I chose scenario number two. Managers oversee as well as them having to come up with the best decisions to solve issues or difficulties overall to preserve their division and have it run smooth. There are various decision making approaches‚ but I will only talk about two and they are bounded rationality and rational. When decisions are being made that have an impact on others‚ it is vital to have the
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making decisions under risky conditions. For example‚ as a contractor my husband has been laid off twice in the past three years‚ however we decided to buy a house. There were many things that could have happened that would have ended our dream‚ but in the end it all worked out and it was worth the risk. 3-17 (use QM) ( a) What type of decision is Ken facing? Ken is facing a decision under uncertainty. ( b) What decision criterion should he use? Since Ken is an optimistic decision maker
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category People judge the probability of a hypothesis by considering how much the hypothesis resembles (is representative for) available data Prospect theory (k&T‚ 1979) The theory describes the decision processes in two stages: editing and evaluation. During editing‚ outcomes of the decision are ordered following certain heuristic. In particular‚ people decide which outcomes they see as identical‚ set a reference point and then consider lesser outcomes as losses and greater ones as gains
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activities that contribute to the decision making process relative to the contributions of others in group decisions. With regard to the roles of decision makers‚ Sheth and Mittal (2004) suggest two major types of decisions: (1) autonomous decisions‚ and (2) joint decisions. Autonomous decisions are decisions made independently by the decision maker. On the other hand‚ joint decisions are consensus decisions where two or more decision makers play a part in making the decision. Greydanus and Bashe (2003)
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Are Corporate Decisions Moral? By David G. Hennessey 201130013 December‚ 2012 Morality. In today’s world we hear this term a great deal. In religion‚ politics‚ wars‚ etc‚ morality is spoken from the media‚ shouted from the roof tops and criticized by men and women alike. Many state that it is an old fashion concept‚ out of date and out of step with modern society and we need not follow it. Yet‚ few people hold to these lines when they hear of some scandal‚ some business dealing‚
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Home [pic]http://jayhanson.us/america.htm [pic] Decision Making and Problem Solving by Herbert A. Simon and Associates Associates: George B. Dantzig‚ Robin Hogarth‚ Charles R. Piott‚ Howard Raiffa‚ Thomas C. Schelling‚ Kennth A. Shepsle‚ Richard Thaier‚ Amos Tversky‚ and Sidney Winter. Simon was educated in political science at the University of Chicago (B.A.‚ 1936‚ Ph.D.‚ 1943). He has held research and faculty positions at the University of California (Berkeley)‚ Illinois Institute of Technology
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