BUSINESS CYCLES Trend and cycle of the business cycle Phases of the cycle Pro‐cyclical‚ counter‐cyclical‚ and a‐cyclical variables Lead‚ lagged‚ and contemporary variables Stylized facts and cyclical behavior of key macroeconomic variables 2 BUSINESS CYCLES Over time GDP grows but not in a linear way GDP 2006 constant prices (in logs) 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.5 3 BUSINESS CYCLES Time Series Components 1. 2. 3. 4. Trend (long‐run) Cycle (short‐run)
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Comparison of GDP among country and living standard GDP per person is measured frequently that most countries provide information on GDP allowing comparing with other countries. It is measured on a consistent basis that the technical definition of GDP is relatively consistent among countries. When compared to other countries with GDP per capita‚ GDP per capita as well as abroad is almost always higher‚ therefore‚ rich countries and the poor have very different rate of GDP per person. If large GDP leads
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A Presentation on Different phase of Business Cycle Business Cycles √ The term business cycle refers to the recurrent ups and downs in the level of economic activity‚ which extend over several years. √ Individual business cycles may vary greatly in duration and intensity. √ All display a set of phases. THE BUSINESS CYCLE Phases of the Business Cycle RECESSION TROUGH RECOVERY Level of business activity PEAK Time Level of business activity PEAK H T OW D R G N E R T Time √ Peak or prosperity phase:
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The Business Cycle: Recession: Characteristics: The economy slows down‚ and the level of sales and production orders start declining. Production facilities become underutilized‚ and companies respond by reducing the work rate. Workers who had been hired basis are laid off‚ and/or this reduces their disposable income. Celebrity Example: Stephen Baldwin Filed for bankruptcy. Personal debt of $2.3 million. Owed more than $1 million in taxes. Victim of the housing market collapse. Trough: Characteristics:
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GDP and GNP as economic indicators Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Product (GNP) are key figures in accessing the status of a country’s economy. These numbers are also used to gauge the competency of the administration in steering the economic wheels of the country. By definition: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total market value of a country’s output. It is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a given period of time by factors of production within
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wealth of a country‚ it is necessary to have a way to measure the size of an economy such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Economists usually measure the size of an economy by the amount of stuff it produces. This makes sense in a lot of ways‚ mainly because an economy’s output in a given period of time is equal to the economy’s income‚ and the economy’s level of income is one of the main determinants of its standard of living and societal welfare. GDP is the most closely watched economic statistic because
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Domestic and global business environment covers entire factors inside the country of operation and it’s outside including those of production‚ marketing‚ finance and administration. A model business has two significant activities one is production or purchase of goods and services and the second one is its sale for profit. During that entire process whatever a company has to face at domestic and global fronts is its environment where it has to survive with other competitors. Domestic business environment
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Introduction In general the economy tends to experience different trends. These trends can be grouped as the business/trade cycle and may contain a boom‚ recession‚ depression and recovery. A business/trade cycle (see figure 1) is the periodic but irregular up-and-down movements in economic activity‚ measured by fluctuations in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other macroeconomic variables. Samuelson and Nordhaus (1998)‚ defined it as ‘a swing in total national input‚ income and employment
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Introduction What is GDP? The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been the most widely used indicator of a nation’s welfare since 1944. For decades‚ people regard countries with higher GDP as stronger ones and whatever is good for the GDP is also good for the nation. But is that true? And what does GDP actually measure? In my opinion‚ GDP only measures part of the economic growth‚ while ignores the economic health and human well-being. First of all‚ GDP counts all the money transitions of goods and
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Phases of Business Cycle Business Cycle (or Trade Cycle) is divided into the following four phases :- Prosperity Phase : Expansion or Boom or Upswing of economy. Recession Phase : from prosperity to recession (upper turning point). Depression Phase : Contraction or Downswing of economy. Recovery Phase : from depression to prosperity (lower turning Point). Diagram of Four Phases of Business Cycle The four phases of business cycles are shown in the following diagram :- The business cycle
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