specific example. We can employ this strategy quite effectively for working with a wide variety of situations Involving probability and random outcomes. We categorize these situations by defining a generic numerical outcome‚ or "random variable." for similar random circumstances. Identifying the type of random variable ap¬propriate in a given situation makes it easy to find probabilities and other infor¬mation that would be difficult to derive from first principles. There are two different broad classes
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water leak. What is the difference? The answers must be expressed as conditional probabilities of the observed variables‚ P(Meltdown|...). P(Meltdown | PumpFailureWarning‚ WaterLeakWarning) = 0‚14535 P (Meltdown | PumpFailure‚ WaterLeak) = 0‚2 c) The conditional probabilities for the stochastic variables are often estimated by repeated experiments or observations
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Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory Vol. 30‚ No. 2 May 2011 pp. 19–50 American Accounting Association DOI: 10.2308/ajpt-50009 Financial Statement Fraud Detection: An Analysis of Statistical and Machine Learning Algorithms Johan Perols SUMMARY: This study compares the performance of six popular statistical and machine learning models in detecting financial statement fraud under different assumptions of misclassification costs and ratios of fraud firms to nonfraud firms. The results show
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7) Data from a small bookstore are shown in the accompanying table. The manager wants to predict Sales from Number of Sales People Working. Number of sales people working | Sales (in $1000) | 4 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 8 | 15 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 20 | 12 | 22 | 14 | 22 | 16 | 25 | 18 | 25 | 20 | 28 | x=11.9 | y=19.8 | SD(x)=5.30 | SD(y)=5.53 | a) Find the slope estimate‚ b1. Use technology or the formula below to find the slope. b1=rsysx Enter x‚y Data in TI-84 under STAT > STAT
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Richard C. Carrier‚ Ph.D. “Bayes’ Theorem for Beginners: Formal Logic and Its Relevance to Historical Method — Adjunct Materials and Tutorial” The Jesus Project Inaugural Conference “Sources of the Jesus Tradition: An Inquiry” 5-7 December 2008 (Amherst‚ NY) Table of Contents for Enclosed Document Handout Accompanying Oral Presentation of December 5...................................pp. 2-5 Adjunct Document Expanding on Oral Presentation.............................................pp. 6-26
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serviced per hour. How many clients are in the bank at any given time? How much time does a client spend in the bank? How many clients are waiting to be served? How much time does a client spend waiting? What is the probability that the teller is busy? What is the probability that there are no clients? DATA TABLE Given Description Value m Number of tellers 1 λ Arrivals per hour 11 μ Serviced per hour 12 1. Compute the average number of clients in the system
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Assignment Form |Course: | Data‚ Model and Decision | |Instructor: | Dr. Feng Haolin | |Homework: |Decision Analysis | |Name: | Group 1. Li Yuechuan/ Pankaj Malhotra/ Liang Yuan/
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Smooth Sailing has determined three possible options for its future‚ along with the probabilities of occurrence and estimated cash flows (ECF): 1. Continue operating the cruise ship in current area. (10% probability with $4.0 million ECF) 2. Operate cruise ship in new area with fewer pirates. (20% probability with $6.0 million ECF) 3. Operate for one more year and then return ship to lender. (70% probability with $1.0 million ECF) These events show that the carrying amount of the asset group
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EE 562a: Random Processes in Engineering EE department‚ USC‚ Fall 2014 Instructor: Prof. Salman Avestimehr Homework 1 Solutions 1. (Axioms of Probability) Prove the union bound: n P [∪n Ak ] ≤ k=1 P [Aj ]. j=1 The union bound is useful because it does not require that the events Aj be independent or disjoint. Problem 1 Solution We prove this part by induction‚ for k = 2 we have P (A1 ∪ A2 ) = P (A1 ) + P (A2 ) − P (A1 ∩ A2 ) ≤ P (A1 ) + P (A2 ) (1) Now‚ assume that
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BUSAD 5120 – Decision Sciences Quiz #1 Instructions: Answer 33 questions on this quiz. That means skip 3 questions. If you answer more than 33 I will choose up to 3 random numbers and will disregard those questions so only 33 will remain to be graded. All questions are worth the same point value (3 points each). Email me your completed quiz no later than Sunday‚ Nov 2nd. Chapter 1: TRUE/FALSE (1-9) 1) Management science involves the philosophy of approaching a problem in a subjective manner
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