Forecasting stock market depends on forecasting the volatility by different linear or non-linear models. The volatility of asset returns is time-varying and predictable‚ but forecasting the future level of volatility is very difficult. Hence‚ in this study we have provided a simple‚ yet highly effective framework for forecasting a stock market by considering the transition probability and long run probability of different classified state of volatility. Using DSE 20 index data for January 2001 to October
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1. Should multinational firms hedge foreign exchange rate risk? If not‚ what are the consequences? If so‚ how should they decide which exposures to hedge? Generally‚ multinational firms should hedge foreign exchange rate risk. Because foreign exchange risk 1) Affects existing income statement items and balance sheet assets‚ liabilities‚ and equity through translation exposure. 2) Influences the value of outstanding foreign-currency-denominated contracts and obligations‚ thus firm’s earning and
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and Hodrick‚ foreign exchange intervention is a monetary policy tool utilised to directly influence the exchange rate. Central banks‚ especially in emerging market economies (EMEs)‚ intervene in foreign exchange markets to change the rate favourably in their direction. According to Dominguez (1986)‚ we live ‘in an era of flexible exchange rates‚ where currency prices are clearly driven by expectations’. However is this true? Through analysing K. Miyajima’s ‘Foreign exchange intervention and expectation
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------------------------------------------------- FE Hedging Strategies at GM Should MNCs hedge foreign exchange rate risk? Multinational firms hedge foreign exchange risk in order to ensure operational and financial functionality. A MNC should hedge foreign exchange risk so it can prevent cash flow effects of the foreign firm and the decline in value of the equity holder because of the movements in exchange rates. It will also help them to reduce transaction costs when obligated to make payments in different
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The three year zero rate is 7% per annum and the four year zero rate is 7.5% pa (both continuously compounded). What is the one year (continuously compounded) forward rate starting in three years’ time? (2 marks) With the formula with continuously compounded‚ = =0.09 =9% The one year forward rate starting in three years’ time is 9% 1. The zero rate curve is flat at 6% pa with semi-annual compounding. What is the value of a FRA where the holder receives interest at the rate of 8% per annum with
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Jaguar is GBP 510‚977‚000 in 1984 under the scenario (A)‚ while the firm value is GBP 215‚492‚000 under the scenario (B). Since there is no change in real exchange rate under the scenario (A)‚ we just considered the change in nominal exchange rate due to the inflation difference between the U.S and the U.K. By using the nominal exchange rate‚ we converted the U.S sales value from USD to GBP. Then‚ with other assumptions about revenue and cost we could calculate the free cash flows of 1985-1989
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coming days or weeks. According to the fundamental analysis‚ the euro exchange rates are expected to depreciate in the long-run. Although there was a short uptrend during last week‚ which was driven by yields‚ the investors worry more about deflation and the euro’s resilience. What’s more‚ the ECB rates are highly expected to be cut after ECB’s policy meeting on Thursday. The market is expecting a 25bps reduction in the benchmark rate to 0.50% from the current 0.75%. During the last week‚ many weak
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1. Explain why exchange rates have been so volatile in recent years/ What are the implications of this volatility for companies like Billabong? There are a large number of influences at work in the foreign exchange markets. The most obvious are shifts in fundamental demand for a currency that reflects the outlook for the economy. For example‚ if Australia is exporting more goods and services‚ foreign buyers will need to buy Australian dollars to pay for them. That will put upward pressure on the
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FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS.........................................................................3 3.1 Impact on South Africa’s Balance of Payments ....................................................................................................5 3.2 Impact of the Exchange Rate on different Spheres of the SA economy...............................................................5 3.2.1 Business
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attempt to shed new light on the major currency puzzles. Our starting point is the currency carry trade‚ which consists of selling low interest rate currencies—“funding currencies”—and investing in high interest rate currencies—“investment currencies.” While the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) hypothesizes that the carry gain due to the interest rate differential is offset by a commensurate depreciation of the investment currency‚ empirically the reverse holds‚ namely‚ the investment currency
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