250‚000. approach to recommend a decision. Use the expected value Answer: Given: Realistic estimate of the probability of winning: 0.000004 (1/250‚000) Realistic estimate of the probability of losing : 0.999996 (1- 0.000004) Thus‚ the expected values for the two decision alternatives are: EV(d1) = 0.000004(300‚000) + 0.999996(-2) = 1.2 + (-1.999992) = -0.799992 EV(d2) = 0.000004(0) + 0.999996(0) = 0.00 Using the expected value approach‚ the optimal decision is to select decision alternative
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Closing Case Pg 489 1.What is the expected value of the company in one year‚ with and without expansion? Would the company stockholders be better off with or without expansion? Why? The expected values of the company without expansion goes as followed (.3)(11‚000‚000)+(.5)(17‚500‚000)+(.2)(22‚5000‚000)=165‚500‚000 The expected value of the company with expansion goes as followed: (.3)(13‚000‚000)+(.5)(24‚000‚000)+(.2)(28‚500‚000)=215‚000‚000 (215‚000‚000)-(4‚500‚000(cost))=170
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a) Feel safe Our policy is very detailed and sets out procedures and expectations of what is expected by pupils and staff. It does help children to feel safe that any bad behaviour or untoward actions against another pupil will not be tolerated and will be acted upon to ensure a positive outcome. All staff ensure there is consistency in their approach to handling so that the pupils know what is expected of them‚ this will all help them to feel safe and secure. b) Make a positive contribution
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their respective clients‚ it is not surprising that clients will expect deliverables on the time expected or earlier‚ if better. Because of this expectation‚ the creative company aims to be exceptional in this area through the practice of proper delegation and time management among the partners. To render quality service‚ Elysian Creatives strives to produce the outputs and deliverables before the expected delivery time. This allows the opportunity of to be able to screen and evaluate the outputs for
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operators and can produce up to 230‚000 sprinklers. Three bronze machines and only one injection molding machine are available. | What are the capacity requirements for the next four years? (Assume that there is no learning.) (Enter the demand values in thousands. Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) | | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Plastic | | | | | Demand for plastic sprinklers | | | | | | | | | Percentage of capacity used | | % | | % | | %
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expectations of women‚ as well as the different ways in which the women characters respond. This gives us insight into their individual strengths and weaknesses‚ specifically involving how they cope with the struggle between what they want and what is expected of them. In Women of the Silk‚ there is great significance placed on expectations of women‚ specifically in China circa 1920’s‚ including pressures to live a certain lifestyle and behave in an appropriate manner at all times. The differences between
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motion using experiments‚ equations and comparing the expected and experimental data. Procedure: Case I: Use formulas to find equation of horizontal Range (R) in a projectile motion. Rearrange equation for Rmax‚ and find the angle Adjust the launches angle to angle Launch the ball‚ measure Rmax Use the equation to solve for initial speed Case II: Calculate new R=80/100Rmax Use to calculate () Find out another expected angle ‚ and find its relation with Adjust the launch
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other things held constant. Sensitivity analysis begins with a base case developed using expected values (in the statistical sense) for all uncertain variables. Then‚ each uncertain variable is usually changed by a fixed percentage amount above and below its expected value‚ holding all other variables constant at their expected values. Thus‚ all input variables except one are held at their base case values. The resulting NPVs (or IRRs) are recorded and plotted. Although sensitivity analysis
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manufacture a component part or to purchase it. In order to make this decision we need to calculate the Expected Monetary Value for each probability. The highest EMV will be the best decision (Satyaprasad‚ Nirmala‚ & Saha‚ 2012). So‚ EMV for manufacture is= -20(.35) + 40(.35) + 100(.30) = -7+ 14+ 30 = 37. EMV for purchase is= 10(.35) + 45(.35) + 70(0.30) = 3.5 + 15.75 + 21 = 40.25. So‚ the expected monetary value for purchase option is higher that the manufacture option. So‚ purchasing the component part will
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their values in terms of profits and losses are for each of the two tooling alternatives‚ also visualize the outcomes of different prospects in order make better decision under uncertainty Strengths of decision tree analysis Decision tree analysis will show all the alternatives‚ probabilities‚ costs and the possible outcomes that are not even consider by the company. The company can add the possible scenario into decision tree diagram‚ through the diagram can calculate the expected values and a
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