Demand Forecasting in the Indian Retail Industry Applied Economics (HS 700) Course Project Report Vijay Gabale (07305004) Ashutosh Dhekne (07305016) Piyush Masrani (07305017) Sumedh Tirodkar (07305020) Tanmay Mande (07305051) March 19‚ 2008 1 Contents 1 Introduction 1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Challenges Faced in Demand Forecasting 3 Theoretical Framework 3.1 Judgemental
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Which of the following is the least useful sales forecasting model to use when sales are increasing? Select one: Trend adjusted exponential smoothing Weighted moving average Naïve Exponential smoothing ? Simple mean x Which of the following forecasting methods is most likely to be implemented to change an existing quantitative forecast to account for a new competitor in the marketplace? Select one: Gamma method Executive opinion Market research Naïve method Delphi method
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QUALITATIVE FORECASTING METHODS Qualitative forecasting methods are based on educated opinions of appropriate persons 1. Delphi method: forecast is developed by a panel of experts who anonymously answer a series of questions; responses are fed back to panel members who then may change their original responses a- very time consuming and expensive b- new groupware makes this process much more feasible 2. Market research: panels‚ questionnaires‚ test markets‚ surveys‚ etc. 3. Product life-cycle
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This paper addresses four forecasting methods. The first is the Delphi technique‚ which could be considered one of the core tools of future forecasting. The remaining three are interrelated and consist of environmental scanning‚ issues management‚ and emerging issues analysis. These three have in common the aim of surveying the environment to determine likely issues that are going to impact upon an organization‚ community‚ or individual. Although‚ they are similar in this regard‚ they do differ on
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Garden State Container Corporation Financial Analysis and Forecasting Prepared By Team MA3: Case 36 March 18‚ 2013 Garden State Container Corporation manufactures boxes and other containers for farm products. 85 % of the company’s sales come from the northeastern part of the United States‚ although their patented egg cartons are distributed throughout the United States. Jim Jackson‚ the founder and president of the company recently received a call from Martha Menendez‚ vice president of Atlantic
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Demand Forecasting Demand forecasting • Why is it important • How to evaluate • Qualitative Methods • Causal Models • Time-Series Models • Summary Production and operations management Product Development long term medium term short term Product portifolio Purchasing Manufacturing Distribution Supply network designFacility Partner selection location Distribution network design and layout Derivatuve Supply Demand forecasting is product developmentcontract the starting ? point
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perish’‚ used along with the claim that Australia would not be able to defend itself if under attack. A larger population was argued to help boost the Australian economy. Trends that have affected Australia’s population include population growth‚ age structure and spacial distribution. Population growth is an important trend that affects the population of Australia. Over the past 100 years‚ Australia’s population has boomed. Take‚ for example‚ the Australian population of 3.8 million in 1990. By the
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The financial crisis that has impacted Greece has taken a heavy affect on the country and the whole of Europe. This Greek crisis also known as the Greek depression started in 2001 when Greece adopted the Euro and became part of the euro zone‚ which then give Greece easy access to millions of loans at a low interest rate. The Greek government then used the back loans to finance projects such as infrastructures‚ pensioners and technologies to modernize their country and compete with their new competitors
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5/7/08 4:42 PM Page 52 C H A P T E R Forecasting Models 5 TEACHING SUGGESTIONS Teaching Suggestion 5.1: Wide Use of Forecasting. Forecasting is one of the most important tools a student can master because every firm needs to conduct forecasts. It’s useful to motivate students with the idea that obscure sounding techniques such as exponential smoothing are actually widely used in business‚ and a good manager is expected to understand forecasting. Regression is commonly accepted as a tool
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for seasonal effects‚ trends and cycles 2 Part2. Dummy Variables Model 3 Linear trend model 3 Quadratic trend model 5 Cubic trend model 7 Part 3. Decomposition and Box-Jenkins ARIMA approaches 8 First difference: 10 a. Create an ARIMA (4‚ 1‚ 0) model 10 b. Create an ARIMA (0‚ 1‚ 4) model 11 c. Create an ARIMA (4‚ 1‚ 4) 11 d. Model overfitting 12 Second difference 13 Forecast based on ARIMA (0‚ 1‚ 4) model 13 Return the seasonal factors for forecasting 14 Part 4. Discussion
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