(h) Implement and evaluate the results 5. Any three of: sales planning‚ production planning and budgeting‚ cash budgeting‚ analyzing various operating plans. 6. There is no mechanism for growth in these models; they are built exclusively from historical demand values. Such methods will always lag trends. 7. Exponential smoothing is a weighted moving average where all previous values are weighted with a set of weights that decline exponentially. 8. MAD‚ MSE‚ and MAPE are common measures of forecast
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from the graph that the four-week moving average forecast smoothes the data the most‚ while the naïve forecast responds to change the best. (1 mark) 4.5 Given the following data‚ use exponential smoothing ( = 0.2) to develop a demand forecast. Assume the forecast for the initial period is 5. Exponential Smoothing Forecast Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 – Ft-1) ie F2 = F1 + (A1 – F1) = 5 + 0.2 (7 – 5) = 5.4. Carrying this through to week 7 gives: Period Demand Exponentially Smoothed Forecast 1
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ASSIGNMENT (2015-16) 1. During a socio-economic survey conducted in a rural area‚ the concerned authorities came to the conclusion that mean level of income in the area was Rs 150 per month with a standard deviation of Rs 20 and that income is approximately normally distributed. The total population of the area was 4000. Compute the number of people who fell into the following categories: (i) monthly income less than Rs 50 (ii) monthly income greater than Rs 100 but less than or equal to
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FORECASTING IN QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS I am highly honoured to give a presentation on forecasting. You are all welcome. Every organisation’s success depends on how well it is able to forecast. We will look at the meaning of forecast‚ the steps‚ qualitative and quantitative forecasting and finally the benefits. The Meaning Of Forecasting Forecasting is a process of predicting or estimating the future based on past and present data. Forecasting provides information about the potential future events
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division‚ some techniques will not work for one division like it would for another. For example‚ a test market may work for a division with a brand new product‚ but it would not be as helpful or efficient for a division where there has been steady growth and established products for the past five years. The other suggestion I have would be to not begin the market analysis with reviewing the sales in each division of the company. If he would like to know more about the market‚ it would make more sense
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Exponential Distribution • Definition: Exponential distribution with parameter λ: λe−λx x ≥ 0 f (x) = 0 x s). = = = = = P (X > s + t|X > t) P (X > s + t‚ X > t) P (X > t) P (X > s + t) P (X > t) e−λ(s+t) e−λt e−λs P (X > s) – Example: Suppose that the amount of time one spends in a bank is exponentially distributed with mean 10 minutes‚ λ = 1/10. What is the probability that a customer will spend more than 15 minutes in the bank? What is the probability that a customer
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better estimates of what will happen in the future; this is the main purpose of forecasting. Some firms use subjective methods‚ seat-of-the pants methods‚ intuition‚ and experience. There are also several quantitative techniques‚ moving averages‚ exponential smoothing‚ trend projections‚ and least squares regression analysis. Eight steps to forecasting: * Determine the use of the forecast—what objective are we trying to obtain? * Select the items or quantities that are to be forecasted
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multiple-channel waiting lines. Understand how the Poisson distribution is used to describe arrivals and how the exponential distribution is used to describe services times. Learn how to use formulas to identify operating characteristics of the following waiting line models: a. Single-channel model with Poisson arrivals and exponential service times b. Multiple-channel model with Poisson arrivals and exponential service times 5. Know how to incorporate economic considerations to arrive at decisions concerning
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OPR1010 Operations Management (Winter 2010) In-class Assignment 2: Forecasting Directions: ( We will check the answers during the supplemental session on Feb. 18. (Participation points will be considered for volunteers. (This is not a take-home assignment. You do not have to turn in the answers. (Use MS-Excel for Questions 1 through 4. Q-1. The Polish General’s Pizza Parlor is a small restaurant catering to patrons with a taste for European Pizza. One of its specialties is Polish Prize
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1. (24 points) If needed‚ additional workspace is provided on the next sheet. Doug Moodie is the president of Garden Products Limited. Over the last 5 years‚ his vice president of marketing has been providing the sales forecast using his special “focus” forecasting technique. The actual sales for the past ten years and the forecasts from the vice president of marketing are given below. |Year |Sales |VP/Marketing
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