PRODUCTION PLANNING TERM PROJECT | | | Course Lecturer: Prof.Dr.Selim Zaim Öğr.Gör.Dr.Hüseyin Selçuk Kılıç | | | | | Project Members: Elif Duygu Bağatırlar 150308045 Merve Ağaoğlu 150308026 İbrahim Ahıskalı 150308006 QUESTION 1 * Moving Average Method | | MA(2) | MA(3) | MA(4) | MA(5) | MA(6) | MA(2) | MA(3) | MA(4) | MA(5) | Month | Demand | one-step ahead | one-step ahead | one-step ahead | one-step ahead | one-step ahead | two
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a. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.5 to forecast the population of the United States in 2003. [pic] b. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.8 to forecast the population of the United States in 2003. c. Which of the two methods provides a more accurate forecast based on the MAD criterion? [pic] 4. Refer to the data provided in problem 1. Using Solver to find the optimal alpha that minimizes MAD‚ use exponential smoothing to
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1.From your knowledge of restaurant‚ from the video‚ from the Global Company Profile that opens this chapter‚ and from the case itself. Identify how each of the 10 decisions of operations management is applied at Hard Rock Cafe? 1) Design of goods and service Hard Rock Cafe us famous for foods from classic American -burgers and chicken wings- . So they try to be good in service to customers and always modifying the menu. The experience concept is to provide not only a custom meal from the menu
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Corporation retains a service crew to repair machine breakdowns that occur on an average of 3 per day (approximately Poisson in nature). The crew can service an average of 8 machines per day‚ with a repair time distribution that resembles the exponential distribution. a. What is the utilization rate for this service? b. What is the average downtime for a machine that is broken? c. How many machines are waiting to be serviced at any given time? d. What is the probability that more than one
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30% 46% 16% -.82 3.75 -4.57 Five week moving average 10.73 15.57 7.9 28% 40% 16% 11.17 5.17 -2.72 Five week exponential smoothing 11.58 18.09 8.57 29% 43% 18% 0.62 1.93 -0.59 Three week exponential smoothing 11.13 17.78 7.89 29% 45% 17% -.27 1.74 -2.66 Aggregate demand model 30.57 14% 0.93 Question 2 Next consider using a simple exponential smoothing model. In your analysis‚ test two alpha values‚ .2 and .4. Use the same criteria for evaluating the model
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Calculate the weighted 3-month moving average using weights of 0.50‚ 0.30‚ and 0.20 for periods 4-6. (5 points) c. Calculate the exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2-6 using an initial forecast (F1) 62‚ and an of 0.30. (10 points) d. Calculate the double exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2-6 using an initial trend forecast (T1) of 2.0‚ and initial exponential smoothing forecast (S1) of 60 an of
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experienced a large increase in the number of academically trained scientists from the 1940s to the 1960s. During this time the growth in the number of Scientists in the United States outpaced the overall population. Conversely‚ the percentage of dollars invested in Research and Development outpaced the Gross National Product of the United States. (Wiley‚ n.d.) The growth in scientific study and technology forecasting was spurred by several factors‚ not the least of which was the race to outer space
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following policy: if a customer has to wait‚ the price is $3.50 per gallon; if they don’t have to wait‚ the price is $4.00 per gallon. Customers arrive according to a Poisson process with a mean rate of 20 per hour. Service times at the pump have an exponential distribution with a mean of 2 minutes. Arriving customers always wait until they can by gasoline. Determine the expected price of gasoline per gallon. Problem 3 The Old Colony theme park has a new ride‚ the Double-Disgusting Cyclonic Twister
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Complete the following case study and problems and submit the results in either a Microsoft Word document or a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. If you choose to use an Excel spreadsheet‚ place each problem on a separate sheet and label the tab with problem number. Save your document with a descriptive file name‚ including the assignment and your name. Chapter 4: North-South Airline Case Study: In January 2008‚ Northern Airlines merged with Southeast Airlines . . . 3-1 Data collected on the yearly demand
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PERENCANAAN & PENGENDALIAN PRODUKSI TIN 4113 Pertemuan 2 • Outline: – – – – – Karakteristik Peramalan Cakupan Peramalan Klasifikasi Peramalan Metode Forecast: Time Series Simple Time Series Models: • Moving Average (Simple & Weighted) • Referensi: – Smith‚ Spencer B.‚ Computer Based Production and Inventory Control‚ Prentice-Hall‚ 1989. – Tersine‚ Richard J.‚ Principles of Inventory and Materials Management‚ Prentice-Hall‚ 1994. – Pujawan‚ Demand Forecasting Lecture Note‚ IE-ITS‚ 2011
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