PRODUCTION & OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT Forecasting helps managers and businesses develop meaningful plans and reduce uncertainty of events in the future. Managers want to match supply with demand; therefore‚ it is essential for them to forecast how much space they need for supply to each demand. 1.1 QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES * LINEAR TREND Show steady‚ straight-line increases or decreases where the trend-line can go up or down and the angle may be steep or shallow
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Forecasting on the Development of Alternative Delivery Channel (ADC) Product of AB Bank Limited INTRODUCTION Operation Management is the management of systems or processes that create goods and/or provide services. This project is aimed on the implementation of the processes involved in the Operation management‚ facilitating the creation of goods and services‚ and providing overall operational efficiency in an organization. For implementing the project proposal it is required to select
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the text‚ exercise 9.1 provides data for Palmdale Human Services. In this exercise it asks for the 20X5 figures using several forecasting models. The process of find 20X5 will include the use of moving averages‚ weighted moving averages‚ and exponential smoothing. The Palmdale Human Services personal expenses for the past four years are represented in the following data: Fiscal Year | Expense | 20X1 | $5‚250‚000 | 20X2 | $5‚500‚000 | 20X3 | $6‚000‚000 | 20X4 | $6‚750‚000 | For moving averages
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time periods to predict future sales assuming that the closest time period is a more accurate predictor of future sales is: Student Answer: Moving average model Weighted moving average model Closest moving average model Exponential smoothing model Instructor Explanation: Chapter 15‚ Page 236 Points Received: 5 of 5 Comments: 3. Question : (TCO 3) The regression statistic that measures how many standard errors the coefficient is from zero is the ________________
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RMSE/Mean* MAPE RMSE RMSE/Mean* Winter’s exponential smoothing 6.65% 4.65 7.74% 5.92% 6.73 28.74% Decomposition with exponential smoothing trend 5.45% 3.97 6.61% 4.63% 5.77 24.64% ARIMA(1‚0‚0)(2‚0‚0) 7.23% 5.11 8.51% 8.02% 6.56 28.01% *Mean of NHS for the historical period is 60.08 and for the holdout period is 23.42 The best model should be the one with the smallest error. Among these three time-series models‚ the decomposition with exponential smoothing trend has the smallest MAPE and RMSE
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Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertain exists in model parameters. A: True An inspector correctly identifies 90% of the time. For the next 10 products‚ the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is .736. A: Use Binomial table to discover ‚ add 3 probabilities for 0‚1‚2 A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval. A: False A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes‚ square probability nodes and branches
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TIME SERIES MODELS Time series analysis provides tools for selecting a model that can be used to forecast of future events. Time series models are based on the assumption that all information needed to generate a forecast is contained in the time series of data. The forecaster looks for patterns in the data and tries to obtain a forecast by projecting that pattern into the future. A forecasting method is a (numerical) procedure for generating a forecast. When such methods are not based upon
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CLICK TO DOWNLOAD MAT 540 Midterm Exam 1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. 2. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval. 3. An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products‚ the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736. 4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes‚ square probability nodes‚ and
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Plan (MRP) e. Purchasing and Production Activity Control MANUFACTURING PROCESS MANAGEMENT 1.4 Understand forecasting 1.4.1 Explain methods of forecasting a. Moving Average Forecasting b. Weighted Moving Average Forecasting c. Exponential Smoothing Forecasting 1.4.2 Solve typical problems using above approaches 1.4.3 Determine the forecast errors using a. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) b. Mean Squared Error (MSE) c. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) MANAGEMENT Management in
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–term perspective of operations. Forecasting starts with certain assumptions based on the management’s experience‚ knowledge and judgment. These estimates are projected into the coming months or years‚ using one or more techniques such as exponential smoothing‚ weighted moving averages trend projection‚ regressing analysis and trend projection. Forecasting is used to answer important questions‚ such as how much demand will there be for a product or services‚ how much will it cost to produce the
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