FORECASTING FORECASTING The Role of the Manager Planning Organizing Staffing Leading Controlling Future ? Data Information • Short-range • Medium-range • Long-range Features Common to All Forecasts Forecasting techniques generally assume that same underlying causal system that existed in the past will continue to exist in the future. Forecasts are rarely perfect. Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items. Forecast
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Forecasting BUS446: Production Control (CFM1316A) Monday‚ April 29‚ 2013 Forecasting In the business world today‚ companies use forecasting methods to implement processes and strategies in order to meet organizational goals. Forecasting will allow a company to plan for possible outcomes‚ making adjustments to inventory levels and staff. Through forecasting‚ companies will attempt to keep operating costs at a manageable level without sacrificing production and quality.
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Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar‚ but more general term. Both might refer to formal statistical methods employing time series‚ cross-sectional or longitudinal data‚ or alternatively to less formal judgemental methods. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example‚ in hydrology
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Financial forecasting allows financial managers to anticipate events before they occur‚ particularly the need for raising funds externally. An important consideration is that growth may call for additional sources of financing because profit is often inadequate to cover the net buildup in receivables‚ inventory‚ and other asset accounts. When forecasting‚ one must take into account estimated future levels of receivables‚ inventory‚ payables‚ and other corporate accounts as well as its anticipated
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Demand Forecasting Importance Demand forecasts form the basis of all supply chain planning. Forecast of future demand are essential for making accurate supply chain decisions and ensuring the company’s success. Examples of such decisions include how much of the product to make‚ how much to inventory‚ how much to replenish and how much to order. Ease of Forecasting Beverages are a push product. Forecasting is not easy in the beverage industry as there are possible serious fluctuations in demand
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Forecasting Why forecast? Features Common to all Forecasts • Conditions in the past will continue in the future • Rarely perfect • Forecasts for groups tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individuals • Forecast accuracy declines as time horizon increases Elements of a Good Forecast • Timely • Accurate • Reliable (should work consistently) • Forecast expressed in meaningful units • Communicated in writing • Simple to understand and use Steps in Forecasting Process
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FORECASTING Q1: Moving averages are often used to identify movements of stock prices. Weekly closing prices (in $ per share) for Toys Я Us for 22 September‚ 1997‚ through December 8‚ 1997‚ are as follows (Prudential Securities Inc); Month Sept 22 Sept 29 Oct 6 Oct 13 Oct 20 Oct 27 Nov 3 Nov 10 Nov 17 Nov 24 Dec 1 Dec 8 Fund Price 37.8750 35.6250 34.6875 33.5625 32.6250 34.0000 33.6250 35.0625 34.0625 34.1250 33.2500 32.0625 a. Use a 3-month simple moving average
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given a certain amount of change in another. In fact it provides estimates of values of the dependent variables from the values of independent variables. (S.P.Gupta ‚ M.P.Gupta‚ 2003) Time series analysis is the most popular method of business forecasting because it helps in understanding of past behavior‚ it helps in planning future operations‚ it helps in evaluating current accomplishments above all it facilitates comparison. ( S.P.Gupta‚ M.P.Gupta‚ 2003) The basic objective of the study of
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Interpreting Financial Results FIN/571 Interpreting Financial Results When analyzing a business‚ financial statements provide a detailed look into the company and the success or failure which lies within in. Financial ratios are calculated to determine these numbers and to identify other number related variables that have an impact on the company and those investing in the business. Once determined they offer information concerning the businesses return on investment
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Running head: FINANCIAL RATIO ANALYSIS STARBUCKS CORP. Financial Ratio Analysis Starbucks Corporation University of Phoenix FIN/540 Managerial Accounting and Finance Foundations September 19‚ 2011 Financial Ratio Analysis Starbucks Corporation Starbucks Corporation is the global leader in coffee and has a strong entrepreneurial history of product development and branding. Ranked as both a Fortune 500 and Fortune 1000 Best Company to Work For Starbucks employs 116‚357 team members
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