University Faculty of Financial & Administrative Sciences O PERATIONS M ANAGEMENT B y: Dr. Ola E lgeuoshy S pring 2013 C hapter (3) F orecasting F ORECASTING “ a Statement about the future value of a variable of i nterest .” U ses of Forecasting: Accounting Cost/profit estimates Finance Cash flow and funding Human Resources Hiring/recruiting/training Marketing Pricing‚ promotion‚ strategy MIS IT/IS systems‚ services Operations Schedules‚ MRP‚ workloads
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Practical Business Analysis Group Project 3: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Due: March 14‚ 2013 at the beginning of the class NAME NAME NAME 1. Insert a time series plot. Comment on the underlying trend and seasonal patterns. This is your own observation. There is no need to run any forecasting model here. (Insert the plot here.) (Insert your comments here.) 2. Forecasting using a Multiplicative Model: a. Use the time series decomposition method
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Christmas. Additionally there are various specialty catalogs: Spring Weekend‚ Summer Camp‚ Fly Fishing‚ etc as well as a smaller "prospect" version. The catalogs have a "gestation period" of about nine months that involves creation‚ planning‚ and forecasting of each item for each catalog. 3. They shipped 114 million pieces that reached six million active customers with 80% of the customers ordering via the telephone. 4. L.L. Bean was rated number one in customer satisfaction of mail-order companies
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cyclical variation c. seasonal effect d. unpredictable random factor e. none of the above 3. Examine the plot of data. (1) Sales Time It is likely that the best forecasting method for this plot would be: a. a two-period moving average b. a secular trend upward c. a seasonal pattern that can be modeled using dummy variables or seasonal adjustments d. a semi-log regression model e. a cubic functional form 4. Emma uses
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1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Company Profile Toyota Motor‚ the world’s largest automotive manufacturer (overtaking GM in 2008)‚ designs and manufactures a diverse product line-up that includes subcompacts to luxury and sports vehicles‚ as well as SUVs‚ trucks‚ minivans‚ and buses. Its vehicles are produced either with combustion or hybrid engines‚ as with the Prius. Toyota’s subsidiaries also manufacture vehicles: Daihatsu Motor produces mini-vehicles‚ while Hino Motors produces trucks and buses. Additionally
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Chapter 6 Forecasting Case Problem 2: Forecasting Lost Sales 1. The data used for the forecast is the Carlson sales data for the 48 months preceding the storm. Using the trend and seasonal method‚ the seasonal indexes and forecasts of sales assuming the hurricane had not occurred are as follows: Month Seasonal Index Month Forecast ($ million) January 0.957 September 2.16 February 0.819 October 2.54 March 0.907 November 3.06 April 0.929 December 4.60 May 1.011 June 0.937 July 0.936
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and review which forecasting technique is best used by the team. BankUSA Help Desk - Case Study The Help Desk of BankUSA is the primary customer contact unit within fiduciary operations. The department consists of 20 employees broken down into 14 full-time customer service representatives (CSRs)‚ 3 CSR support employees and 3 managers (Collier & Evans‚ 2013). The senior manager of the Help Desk‚ Dot Gifford‚ has established a team to address short-term forecasting. The Help Desk currently
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We shall begin by looking at some of the ways in which forecasting techniques can help us to predict future trends. Most business and economic decisions rest upon forecasts of future conditions. Methods of forecasting may be roughly categorized as follows: * Opinion polling * Mechanical extrapolations * Barometric techniques * Statistical and econometric methods Finally‚ forecasting techniques vary widely in their accuracy and sophistication. The
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BUS 305 Practice Exam 3 1) Assume the following time series data representing the number of sales per day your company’s employees make. Year-Quarter | t | Yt | 2001-1 | 1 | 17 | 2001-2 | 2 | 26 | 2001-3 | 3 | 21 | 2001-4 | 4 | 15 | 2002-1 | 5 | 19 | 2002-2 | 6 | 18 | 2002-3 | 7 | 21 | 2002-4 | 8 | 23 | a) Use Applet #16 to calculate the seasonal index numbers for the four quarters. b) Interpret what each of the four indices you computed in (a)
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Service the Process Learning Objectives By the end of this Unit‚ you should be able to: Describe different types of demand patterns and explain the difference between dependent and independent demand. Explain the main different ways of forecasting demand. Describe the main issues to consider when specifying delivery and supplier service/responsiveness. Outline other types of information important to the supplier that should be included in a specification. ITC M2:U4:1 Purchase
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