Chapter 6: Prospective Analysis: Forecasting Key Concepts in Chapter 6 • Strategy‚ accounting and financial performance analyses provide valuable information that help to shape forecast assumptions. • Forecasts of future performance should be comprehensive‚ including all condensed financial statements. • The starting point for forecasts should be the time series behaviour of key measures such as sales growth‚ earnings and ROE (and its components). Overall Structure of the Forecast • Typically
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The CFO can forecast exchange rates by using either of two approaches‚ fundamental forecasting or technical forecasting. Fundamental forecasting uses trends in economic variables to predict future rates. The data can be plugged into an econometric model or evaluated on a more subjective basis. Technical forecasting uses past trends in exchange rates themselves to spot future trends in rates. Technical forecasters‚ or chartists‚ assume that if current exchange rates reflect all facts in the market
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Planning Solution Enables PepsiCo to Optimize Manufacturing and Distribution against Seasonal Sales Demand PEPSICO BUSINESS NEEDS AND CHALLENGES PepsiCo approached PCA‚ seeking improvements to how they managed their supply-chain planning and forecasting operations — their ability to optimize manufacturing‚ distribution and warehousing of hundreds of different beverage products and snack foods against seasonal sales projections across European‚ Middle East and Asian continents. Under-production
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Although demand forecasting is usually the responsibility of the sales and/or marketing functions‚ it is a very important input into the capacity planning and control decision‚ and so is of interest to operations managers. After all‚ without an estimate of future demand it is not possible to plan effectively for future events‚ only to react to them. It is therefore important to understand the basis and rationale for these demand forecasts. As far as capacity planning and control is concerned‚ there
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Quantitative Methods ADMS 3330 3 0 3330.3.0 Forecasting QMB Chapter 6 © M.Rochon 2013 Quantitative Approaches to Forecasting Are based on analysis of historical data concerning one or more time series. Time series - a set of observations measured at successive points in time‚ or over successive periods of time. If the historical data: • are restricted to past values of the series we are trying to forecast‚ it is a time series method. 1 Components of a Time Series 1)
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Transmittal Message August 06‚ 2009 Ms. Farhana Nur Malik Course Instructor Manpower Planning and Forecasting‚ MGT 425 BRAC Business School Subject: Letter of Transmittal Dear Madam‚ With great pleasure we submit our report on HR Activities of Aarong‚ that you have assigned to us as an important requirement of MGT 425 course. We have found the study to be quite interesting‚ beneficial and insightful. We have tried our level best to prepare an effective and creditable report. The
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1. Which are the data sources (primary and secondary) you would use‚ in order to arrive at a realistic market forecast for the fruit and vegetable and why? In order to create a realistic forecast for the fruit and vegetables in the Australian market in the coming year I would be required to use a variety of primary and secondary sources to ensure that my forecast was correct and had covered all areas relevant. I would begin by conducting some exploratory research of my own‚ such as browsing the
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Data Inspection First we will smooth the series by transforming the data on oil demand into their logarithmic form. The log transformation allows the model to be less vulnerable to outliers in the data‚ and thus enables for a more precise forecasting model. Next the data series must be checked for trend and seasonality. Figure 1.1 shows the time series plot for the log transformation of oil imports in Germany from 1985M01 until 1996M12. [pic] Before fitting a trend and seasonal dummies to
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Case Analysis – Southwestern Ohio Steel Company‚ L.P.: The Matworks Decision Submitted by Group -19‚ BBMK Section B Anish Sengupta (13407) Pushkar Parashar (13439) Payal R Singh (13533)
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FORECASTING “ Financial risks and those relating to the provision of financial services Currency risks The sale of vehicles outside the eurozone gives rise to exchange risks. The BMW Group’s currency risk in 2012 was dominated by the US dollar‚ the Chinese renminbi‚ the British pound‚ the Russian rouble and the Japanese yen. Foreign currency risks are determined for forecast exposures measured using cash flow-at-risk models and scenario analyses. Operational currency management is based on the
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